Cooling CPI Fails to Alter Volatile Pattern as Bitcoin Holds Key Support

As of 14:00 (UTC+8) on June 12, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $107,745, down approximately 2.3% from its 48-hour high of $110,277. After testing support at $107,500, the price has temporarily stabilized, but overall remains in a high-level consolidation range. Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $2,800. The overall trading volume in the crypto market has slightly declined, with capital flows turning more cautious. The latest U.S. data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 2.8% year-on-year, all below market expectations, reflecting a continued mild decline in inflation. Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold prices rose. Risk assets saw a short-term boost, but crypto assets responded relatively mildly, indicating that the market had already partially priced in expectations of easing inflation. Despite the data supporting a dovish outlook, the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting.

Most analysts believe that the window for rate cuts may be postponed until after September. Policy uncertainty continues to restrain bullish sentiment in the market. In addition, Société Générale announced it will issue a U.S. dollar stablecoin in July, and the G7 summit will discuss cross-border crypto asset regulatory cooperation. The ongoing involvement of traditional financial and regulatory institutions is driving the crypto industry toward greater compliance and institutionalization, laying the groundwork for long-term development.