Key takeaways:
Zcash’s parabolic 520% surge has pushed it to record overbought levels.
ZEC price must hold above $245 for the next leg up toward $336.
Zcash ( ZEC ) has soared over 520% in the past month, even defying the broader crypto sell-off that wiped out $20 billion in leveraged positions over the weekend.
The privacy coin’s surge brought it within striking distance of the $300 level, a price not seen since December 2021, positioning ZEC among the market’s standout performers.
Can ZEC’s price rise any further from its current levels, or is a cooldown overdue?
ZEC technicals hint at another 25% rally
Zcash’s explosive uptrend appears to be consolidating within a classic bull flag pattern, a continuation setup that typically precedes another leg higher.
The latest candle on the four-hour chart has formed a gravestone Doji near the upper trendline resistance, suggesting a possible short-term pullback toward the flag’s lower boundary around $237.
ZEC could confirm a bullish breakout if buyers push the price above the flag’s upper trendline. Such a move would establish a technical price target for October near $336, about 25% higher than current levels.
The setup further aligns with healthy consolidation above the 20-period (green) and 50-period (red) exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating that the broader bullish momentum remains intact despite signs of short-term overheating.
Bearish scenario includes $210 ZEC price
The ZEC price plunging between the supports, i.e., the flag’s lower trendline and the 20-period EMA, increases the odds of a decline toward the 50-period EMA at around $210.75 in October.
About $5.36 million in cumulative long liquidations stacked near the $244 level makes it a key risk zone for the bulls, as the CoinGlass chart below shows.
ZEC’s decline below the $244 threshold risks triggering a cascade of forced long liquidations, deepening the pullback before any potential rebound.
In simple terms, that’s where many traders’ stop-losses, or liquidation points, are waiting to be triggered, which may send ZEC prices toward the $210.75 target highlighted above.
ZEC hits record “overbought” levels
The bearish case also leans on Zcash reaching its most overbought levels on the weekly chart, which may lead to a short-term pullback in the weeks ahead.
As of Monday, ZEC’s weekly relative strength index ( RSI ) stood above 92, its highest level on record.
The previous peak RSI was 78 in April 2021, and ZEC’s price fell by nearly 70% over the next few months.
A similar cooling-off phase could follow, particularly if the price fails to establish firm support near the 0.786 Fib retracement level at $245.
On the other hand, a bounce from $245 support could send the price rallying toward $307, or higher, to retest ZEC’s 2021 high at around $375.
Related: EU to ban anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins by 2027
Analyst Altcoin Sherpa said that any declines toward $200 may be a “buy,” suggesting that these lower levels could form the bottom over the next few days.
“I’ll be interested around $230 or lower if it comes,” he added.
