BTC Weekly Watch: Has the Market Code Emerged? Dynamic Take-Profit Strategy Suggestions Included

1. Bitcoin Weekly Market Review (10.06~10.12)

• Trend: Surged then fell back → consolidation → significant decline, first up then down

• Opening price: 123,519 points

• Lowest price: 109,683 points (Friday)

• Highest price: 126,272 points, Bitcoin all-time high (Monday)

• Closing price: 115,090 points

• Weekly change: down 6.82%, maximum amplitude 15.12%

• Trading volume: $24.742 billions

• Technical analysis: Weekly K-line closed with a large bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, breaking below the 5-week moving average

Bitcoin weekly K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)

Figure 1

Bitcoin daily K-line chart:

Figure 2

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart:

Figure 3

In the weekly review on October 5, the author predicted:

1. The price would continue to surge this week, watching the 128,000~130,000 points area. If it encounters resistance and falls back, a wide-range oscillation pattern will be maintained.

2. Resistance levels: The first resistance is between 128,000~130,000 points, the second resistance is around 135,000 points.

3. Support levels: The first support is between 116,000~117,500 points, strong support is in the 112,000~113,500 points area.

The trading strategy given in the October 5 weekly review was:

1. Bitcoin is in a bullish market on the daily chart, so the main strategy is to buy on dips.

2. Medium-term strategy: stay out of the market

3. Short-term strategy: set stop-loss points, mainly buy on dips. (Use 1-hour as the trading cycle)

If the price encounters resistance and falls back in the 128,000~130,000 points area, wait for a bottoming signal near 118,000 points to go long, set the initial stop-loss at 114,500 points, and reduce positions near 125,000 points when a topping signal appears.

Actual market review for this week:

This week, Bitcoin's overall trend was "surge then fall back → oscillation and consolidation → significant decline". Specifically: Monday saw a slight gap up and oscillated higher, hitting a new all-time high of 126,272 points before falling back, closing up 0.98%; Tuesday turned to a correction, closing down 2.67% with a medium bearish candle; Wednesday and Thursday continued to oscillate, closing up 1.61% and down 1.34% respectively; Friday became a key turning point, as negative news and technical correction expectations resonated, the price plunged, breaking through multiple supports, bottoming at 109,683 points before rebounding, closing down 7.15% for the day, with a huge amplitude of 12,899 points; Saturday continued to fall by 1.98% due to inertia, and Sunday saw a slight increase of 0.65%, showing initial signs of stabilization. This week's trend basically confirmed the author's judgment of "surge then encounter resistance and fall back, maintaining wide-range oscillation", but the magnitude and speed of Friday's decline far exceeded expectations, becoming the key to the week's weakness.

Trading review for this week:

As there were no buy signals this week, there were no trades for both medium and short-term strategies.

Based on this week's market performance, the author will comprehensively use multiple technical frameworks to deeply analyze the evolution of Bitcoin's internal structure.

1. As shown in Figure 1, from the weekly chart perspective:

• Momentum Quantitative Model: After a sharp correction this week, the two momentum lines maintained a "death cross" above the zero axis and moved downward together, with the energy (green) bars growing rapidly.

Model indicates price decline index: in the process of adjustment

• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Both sentiment indicators have a strength of 0, with a peak value of 0.

Model indicates price pressure index: neutral

• Digital Monitoring Model: No digital signals displayed.

The above data suggest: Weekly bullish momentum is gradually weakening, and bearish signals are strengthening.

2. As shown in Figure 2, from the daily chart analysis:

• Momentum Quantitative Model: After Friday's large bearish candle, the two momentum lines formed a "death cross" above the zero axis again, with energy bars gradually increasing.

• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After Sunday's close, both sentiment indicators were around 32.

The above data suggest: Daily bullish momentum has significantly weakened and returned to the zero axis, with bearish signals reinforced.

2. Next Week's Market Forecast: (10.13~10.19)

1. Next week, the price will retest the effectiveness of the break below the 116,500~118,000 points area. If the break is effective, a range-bound oscillation will be maintained; if it regains footing, it may challenge the 123,000 points resistance.

2. Resistance levels: The first resistance is between 116,500~118,000 points, the second resistance is around 123,000 points.

3. Support levels: The first support is between 107,000~108,500 points, the second support is around 105,000 points.

3. Next Week's Trading Strategy (excluding the impact of unexpected news): (10.13~10.19)

1. Medium-term strategy: stay out of the market, for the latest entry methods please refer to the link at the bottom of the article.

2. Short-term strategy: control position size, set stop-loss points, and use resistance and support levels to "sell high and buy low". (Use 60-minute/240-minute as the trading cycle).

• This strategy uses the result of Bitcoin's test of the 116,500~118,000 points key area as the decision basis;

• If the price regains footing in this area: plan to go long after a stabilization signal appears, set stop-loss near 116,500 points, the first target is around 123,000 points, and close the position if resistance is encountered.

• If the price effectively breaks below this area: plan to go short after a resistance signal appears, set stop-loss near 118,000 points, the first target is around 108,000 points, and close the position if stabilization occurs.

4. Special Reminders:

1. When opening a position: immediately set the initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to ensure no further loss on the trade.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss up to the 1% profit level.

4. Tracking: For every additional 1% increase in price, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.

(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preferences and the volatility of the asset.)

The financial market changes rapidly and the market fluctuates greatly, so the author will dynamically adjust trading strategies at any time. If investors want to get the latest trading views every day, please follow the "Bitpush TG Group" link at the bottom of the article, where you can read the author's daily intraday commentary articles and get the latest trading views in real time.

Author: Cody Feng