- Bitcoin dominance dropped to 60.3%, indicating weakening momentum and a potential shift in trader interest toward altcoins in the near future.
- Technical charts indicate a potential move toward the 56% Fibonacci area, suggesting a short-term correction in the BTC market share.
- Indicators show overbought signals and lower volume, confirming the setup for an altcoin recovery phase if BTC.D declines.
Bitcoin’s market dominance, tracked on the 12-hour CRYPTOCAP BTC.D chart, is showing signs of a potential reversal following a rejection near the 60.33% resistance level. According to the chart data, dominance currently stands at 59.01%, down 0.01% in recent hours, suggesting early weakness after a short-term rally.
The dominance metric, which measures Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, reflects the shifting momentum between Bitcoin and altcoins. Recent readings indicate Bitcoin’s market control may have peaked temporarily, with several technical signals aligning for a corrective move back toward the 56.6% Fibonacci zone.
The observed structure presents a detailed Elliott Wave count, showing an (A)-(B)-(C) correction completing before a rebound to the current level. Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.382 (60.39%), 0.5 (61.37%), 0.618 (62.36%), and 0.786 (63.81%) suggest limited upside before another corrective phase begins.
Technical Patterns Indicate Potential for Lower Move
The BTC dominance chart displays a visible downward channel pattern beginning in mid-July, where each rally has met rejection at lower highs. The recent price action followed this structure, marking an impulsive rise from 56.6% to 60.3% before showing exhaustion signals.
Volume analysis supports this outlook. The data shows declining buying volume as dominance approached key resistance levels, suggesting that traders may be rotating capital toward altcoins. This pattern has appeared several times in the past year, typically preceding a period of altcoin outperformance.
The white projection line on the chart outlines a potential decline scenario, indicating a retracement below 59% and possibly extending to 58.85% and 56.65%. These support levels correspond with previous accumulation zones seen in late August.
Technical indicators such as the Stochastic RSI and Relative Strength Index (RSI) show overbought conditions. The RSI’s downward slope hints at weakening momentum, while the Stochastic lines are turning lower, often a precursor to declining dominance.
Market Context and Historical Comparison
Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance retreats when capital flows into altcoins after an extended period of consolidation. The current market setup mirrors similar structures observed before major altcoin rotations in early 2024 and late 2023. Those instances were marked by BTC dominance touching the 60–62% range before dropping sharply.
The confluence of moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day EMA, supports this interpretation. Dominance recently tested above the 200-day EMA and failed to sustain it, echoing previous rejection patterns that led to multi-week declines.
The presence of an ABC corrective formation also suggests that the recent move upward may complete a corrective wave rather than a trend continuation. The pattern fits within a broader downward Elliott Wave structure targeting the lower 50% zones in later sessions.
Analysts interpret this as a setup for an upcoming “altcoin season,” although confirmation would require Bitcoin’s dominance to break decisively below 58.5%. Until then, traders remain watchful of how Bitcoin’s control interacts with the broader market’s liquidity profile.
The main question now is: Can Bitcoin dominance hold above 59% long enough to delay the expected altcoin resurgence?
Indicators Point to Volatility Ahead
The chart also shows growing price compression near the resistance and the visible range volume profile. A buildup of liquidity between 58.8% and 60.4% could trigger heightened volatility in the subsequent few sessions.
The Fibonacci levels above 60% remain critical thresholds. Should Bitcoin dominance manage to reclaim 61.37%, a short-term continuation toward 62.36% cannot be ruled out before a significant reversal takes place.
Still, the confluence of volume divergence, overbought oscillators, and failed EMA retests leans toward a short-term decline scenario. The projected path, outlined in white, indicates a sharp dip toward 56.6%, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and aligns with prior support established in early September.
As traders monitor this technical setup, attention will likely shift to whether altcoin markets respond positively to declining dominance levels. Historically, each BTC.D drop below 59% has coincided with rallies across mid-cap and large-cap altcoins.
