Glassnode: Continued market weakness would be a key warning signal of structural deterioration; recent pullbacks are mainly due to localized deleveraging rather than large-scale capital outflows.

BlockBeats News, October 15, Glassnode posted on social media that under the dual impact of macroeconomic pressures and $19 billions in futures contract liquidations, bitcoin's surge to $126,000 has reversed. As ETF inflows slow and market volatility spikes, this round of historic leverage unwinding is pushing the market into a reset phase.

Analysts noted that this correction is particularly noteworthy—it's the third time since the end of August that the price has fallen below the 0.95 quantile price model ($117,100). This price level concentrates over 5% of the circulating supply (mainly held by top buyers), and falling below it puts these holders at an unrealized loss. The current price has retreated to the $108,400–$117,100 range, moving away from the previous frenzy phase. If the $117,100 level cannot be reclaimed, the market may test the lower end of the range. Historical data shows that losing this area often triggers medium- to long-term corrections, and if prices remain below $108,400, it will serve as a key warning signal of structural weakness.

Since July 2025, long-term holders (LTH) have continued to reduce their positions, further limiting upward momentum. During this period, LTH supply has decreased by about 300,000 BTC, indicating that mature investors are steadily taking profits. This persistent selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, and the market may enter a consolidation phase. If selling continues and new demand fails to follow, there may be a cyclical correction or localized panic selling before balance is restored.

It is worth noting that during this round of liquidations, spot trading volume surged to a yearly high. Monitoring via the Cumulative Volume Delta Bias (CVDB) shows that one exchange platform faced significant active selling pressure, while another exchange saw net buying, indicating that institutional investors on US-based trading platforms are absorbing the sell-off. Overall, the CVDB only shows a mild net selling tendency, far weaker than the spot panic selling at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent correction is mainly due to localized deleveraging rather than large-scale capital outflows.