Bitcoin News Update: Trump Whale Wagers $430M on Fed Policy Changes and Global Political Shifts

A prominent cryptocurrency whale associated with Donald Trump has significantly increased its short exposure in

and to $430 million, reflecting expectations of heightened market swings ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement and the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. This trader, known as an "OG 'Insider' Whale," has raised its bearish position on Bitcoin to $227 million and taken similar stances in Ethereum, as reported by . This action occurs in a broader context where leveraged bets and macroeconomic triggers are increasing risks for digital assets.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with prediction markets assigning a 98% likelihood, according to

. This expectation has already pushed Bitcoin’s open interest to $37.63 billion, indicating a rise in speculative trading, as noted by . Some analysts believe that ending quantitative tightening (QT)—which would indicate a greater tolerance for inflation—could be a more powerful driver for Bitcoin than the rate cut itself, according to . “Halting QT would mark a shift toward looser monetary policy, which has historically benefited crypto as a hedge against inflation,” said Dr. Andre Dragosh, Bitwise’s head of research.

At the same time, stablecoin movement points to growing optimism in the crypto sector. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin’s market value, is at cycle lows, suggesting there is sidelined capital ready to flow back into the market, as highlighted by Bitcoinist. This, combined with the Fed’s dovish approach, has sparked hopes for a strong “Uptober” rally. “Lower interest rates make capital cheaper, channeling liquidity into riskier assets like Bitcoin,” said Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

Yet, the whale’s trading timing has raised questions. Observers point out that its moves often coincide with major geopolitical or economic events, such as Trump’s recent proposal for 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which led to a $19 billion market drop in late October—a trend first pointed out by Yahoo Finance. On the other hand, supporters claim the trader’s ability to interpret market sentiment and structure validates its approach.

The political environment further complicates the outlook. The Trump-Xi summit on October 30 could either boost risk appetite if trade negotiations go well or prompt a sell-off if new tariffs are introduced, according to

. These developments could impact Bitcoin’s price, which is currently trading near $115,000 after rebounding from a $102,000 low, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

Meanwhile, institutional interest in crypto continues to grow. Last week, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of $149 million and $133 million, respectively, according to

, while total inflows into crypto funds reached $921 million as investors prepare for macro-driven shifts.

With the Fed’s decision approaching, market participants remain vigilant. “The rate cut is likely already reflected in prices, but the real game-changer will be if QT ends,” said Jonathan Rose of BlockTrust IRA in

. The next few days will reveal whether the crypto market can maintain its recent momentum amid overlapping macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.