Hyperlane KursHYPER

some weekend thoughts about MSTR, bitcoin treasury companies, and bitcoin outlook from here people asked me if i’m still bullish after this last couple of days the answer is “yes, but” big picture i think most of the “macro” events from last couple of days are BS: tariff panic should reverse faster than last time, nuclear war fud is tabloid-grade and i’m shocked anyone takes it seriously at all, jobs numbers fiasco only increase likelihood of rate cuts. i’m not worried about any of it maybe some volatility but stonks probably recover quickly, alongside bitcoin. but… some other events have shaken my faith in the relentless infinite institutional bid on bitcoin in the immediate term: 1. saylor announced no more MSTR sales ATM below 2.5x mnav. funnily enough for most of my audience this last sentence probably reads like chinese but explaining it is long so i hope interested readers can decipher what this means with grok. importantly MSTR is currently trading around 1.75x. 2.5x is very far away. i didn’t look at precise numbers but in recent month probably like 90%+ of capital raised by saylor was via MSTR ATM so if that stops entirely that means a very material slowdown in his BTC acquisition capacity. to me this means saylor feels MSTR demand can’t support more ATM sales. that’s not bullish imo on the optimistic side, as i’ve said many times, saylor is a “forced buyer” of bitcoin, which means he HAS TO keep coming up with ways to buy bitcoin. so if MSTR ATM is now a no-go, he will do everything in his power to find another way to do it. and he is! STRC is the newest financial instrument that Strategy is offering and had a promising start. it’s possible STRC ATMs will eventually be able to give saylor all the firepower he needs but imo that might take a little time what to look for: once STRC starts trading at $100 (last close was $94), expect to see saylor issuing more STRC and buying more bitcoin with the proceeds (ie infinite bid on btc is back). the only thing i’m unsure about is how long it’ll take before the market is ready for more STRC issuance. we’ll find out! 2. other bitcoin treasury companies besides MSTR: the new crop of treasury co’s had a few months of trading in la-la land because most shares issued to new private investors haven’t been unlocked yet. the unlocks are now upon us. the first of these to have the unlocks is $SQNS and it performed pretty poorly. share price is now lower than what private investors paid in the latest round, and in fact even lower than what it was before the company announced a bitcoin strategy. it is also trading below 1x mnav which limits the company’s ability to raise new capital for now. basically anyone who didn’t sell on the early announcement hyper is now underwater and the company might have some heavy lifting to do to climb out of that. it could be that this one is a singular fluke, but the reality is that many of the other recently announced treasury companies have somewhat similar capital structure (definitely not identical tho) and they’re likely to play out similarly once they go through their own unlocks. these unlocks should start happening over the next 4 weeks. what to look for: if the new treasury companies perform as poorly as $SQNS on unlock, interest from private investors for more of these deals could cool down. but if shares still trade at a heavy premium after unlocks that probably leads to more companies like this popping up and more buy pressure on bitcoin. 3. altcoin treasury companies: the market is way too over-bullish on those still. they have the same problem described above but they don’t even have the benefit of saylor being the ultimate forced buyer of last resort. lower. 4. i still think bitcoin will exceed all expectations this year! but there are some question marks about the immediate term. i think STRC performance will be the best indicator for that so keep an eye on that 🧙‍♂️

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VII. The ultimate consequence of this hyper-efficiency is an almost irresistible economic incentive: net-negative borrowing rates. "Hmm?" When trading fees exceed loan interest, users are essentially paid to borrow.