Key Notes
- Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas predicts XRP ETF approval by September or October.
- SEC’s new “listing standards” favor altcoins with six months of futures trading, XRP included.
- XRP price eyes a breakout from an ascending channel, with resistance near $3.90.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has projected a likely September or October approval window for altcoin ETFs, including the long-anticipated XRP ETF.
The forecast follows the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent reveal of new listing standards for crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).
The SEC's "Listing Standards" for crypto ETPs is out via new exchange filing. BOTTOM LINE: Any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase's derivatives exchange would be approved (below is list). It's about a dozen of the usual suspects, the same ones we had at 85% or… pic.twitter.com/CmBr8XxAcM
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025
Top Candidate for Altcoin ETF Approvals
The SEC’s updated filing, shared by Balchunas, allows the listing of ETPs for cryptocurrencies that have at least six months of derivatives trading history, like those offered on Coinbase’s derivatives exchange.
XRP XRP $3.12 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $185.25 B Vol. 24h: $5.80 B , which meets this requirement, is now a top candidate under the new framework. Balchunas emphasized that this regulatory shift clears a major hurdle for ETFs based on XRP, Dogecoin, Solana, and similar assets.
Notably, the SEC has already greenlit in-kind creation and redemption for crypto ETPs. ETF shares can now be created and redeemed using actual crypto assets, rather than just fiat.
Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan called this a game-changer, stating that it boosts operational efficiency and aligns crypto ETPs with commodities-backed products like gold ETFs.
85% Odds of Approval, Says Bloomberg
Despite the SEC recently delaying Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision to late 2025, Polymarket shows that the chances of an approval in 2025 rose 15% to 86%. Bloomberg’s team, led by Balchunas, currently maintains an 85% probability of approval by early fall.
Also finally, legal roadblocks for Ripple may soon be cleared. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel believes that both Ripple and the SEC might dismiss their appeals ahead of the August 15 status report.
I believe that’s the date for the parties to report on the status of their appeals. It doesn’t mean it’s a hard deadline by which they must file their dismissal papers, but I assume they will try to do so before then.
— Marc Fagel (@Marc_Fagel) July 28, 2025
XRP Price Analysis: Setup for a Breakout?
Technically, XRP is showing strength ahead of the expected ETF decision window. Currently trading around $3.15, XRP remains within an ascending channel that began in mid-June.
However, resistance looms between $3.70 and $3.90, a zone XRP failed to decisively breach during its last rally. A successful breakout above this range could send the token surging toward previous highs above $5.
XRP Ascending Channel | Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, the MACD is flat but beginning to curve upward while the RSI at 58.38 indicates there’s still room to rally. The BoP and CMF also point to increased buyer presence.
Strong support sits near the $2.30–$2.50 region. If XRP loses the $3 price tag, these prices could act as a favorable entry zone with the altcoin being one of the best crypto to buy .
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