Bitcoin’s recent price swings have sparked discussions about whether the market is experiencing a typical capitulation period, as funding rates dip into negative territory and open interest plummets. VanEck’s report points out that open interest in
Bitcoin
perpetual contracts has fallen by 20% since late October 2025,
with a 32% drop in USD value
, indicating a significant pullback in speculative trading. This mirrors previous bearish cycles, where sharp declines in funding rates often come before oversold markets. Still, the firm warns that large-scale basis trades—such as Ethena’s $14 billion TVL in October, now reduced to $8.3 billion—can skew traditional signals by artificially lowering funding rates
as research suggests
.
At the same time, institutional holdings of Bitcoin continue to provide stability. KindlyMD, which is listed on NASDAQ, revealed it held 5,398
BTC
as of November 12, 2025, with an average acquisition price of $118,204 per coin, amounting to $681 million in total. The company’s methodical strategy—
reallocating 367 BTC for targeted investments
—demonstrates increasing institutional trust in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset for the long term.
Bitcoin’s price has shown considerable volatility, hovering near $87,500 in late November. Hopes for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in December have fueled two straight days of gains, lifting BTC above $88,000. However, the upward trend faces challenges. Analysts at Swissblock
observe that the "Risk-Off Signal" has dropped significantly
—suggesting selling pressure is easing—but warn that another round of capitulation could still occur.
Venture capital activity in the crypto sector sends mixed messages.
The third quarter of 2025 recorded $4.65 billion in VC funding
, marking a 290% increase from the previous quarter, as investors focused on stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and blockchain infrastructure. Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital
further highlighted institutional engagement
by revealing ongoing discussions with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi to boost liquidity.
Expert opinions remain divided.
Extremely bullish projections, such as Standard Chartered’s $200,000 year-end forecast
, depend on continued ETF inflows and a more accommodative Fed. On the other hand, Kraken’s neutral analysts believe Bitcoin may trade sideways between $80,000 and $100,000, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ETF outflows
according to their analysis
. Meanwhile, Max Keiser interprets the recent downturn as the conclusion of a distribution phase,
forecasting a record high in 2025
as accumulation resumes.
Broader risks remain significant. Japan’s soon-to-be-implemented crypto exchange reserve requirements, which mandate firms to maintain reserves for customer losses, are designed to safeguard retail investors but may also tighten liquidity
according to reports
. At the same time, concerns about a tech bubble fueled by AI and ongoing geopolitical tensions—including trade rhetoric reminiscent of the Trump era—continue to impact riskier assets
as analysts point out
.
Nonetheless, institutional participation remains a positive factor. Harvard University’s $443 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs and the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s 198,000 BTC holdings reflect strong long-term commitment
based on available data
. As the market navigates this pivotal moment, the interaction between macroeconomic trends, ETF movements, and institutional strategies is likely to shape Bitcoin’s future direction.
