Bitcoin is currently navigating a challenging environment, with its price hovering around $86,600—over 30% below its high of $126,200 reached in October. This significant drop highlights ongoing volatility across the cryptocurrency market. Investors are paying close attention to technical indicators and the movement of funds in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gauge the next direction for Bitcoin.
Recent data shows that November saw $3.5 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $238 million in new investments. Despite these inflows, Bitcoin continues to struggle with the $90,000 resistance level, which has repeatedly prevented further gains and remains a significant psychological and technical barrier.
Market technician Tony Severino has identified a "triple bearish divergence" on higher timeframes. While Bitcoin’s price has achieved three consecutive higher highs, momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are losing strength. Severino interprets this as a sign that the underlying bullish trend is weakening, suggesting that the market may be running out of steam. This view is supported by recent events, including Bitcoin’s dip below $84,000 and $2 billion in liquidations, both influenced by broader economic uncertainty and a shift toward risk aversion.
The relationship between ETF activity and cryptocurrency prices remains crucial. While spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the month with $238 million in inflows, Ethereum ETFs have also seen varied results. Over a two-day period, Ethereum ETFs attracted $175 million, with major contributions from BlackRock and Fidelity. However, Ethereum’s price is still trading below $3,000, unable to recover its July 2024 peak, highlighting a disconnect between ETF inflows and actual asset performance. This situation reflects the market’s vulnerability, as institutional withdrawals and economic headwinds continue to exert pressure.
Weakness in derivatives trading is also evident, particularly for XRP, where open interest in futures contracts has dropped to $3.57 billion. Meanwhile, the triple bearish divergence highlighted by Severino suggests that Bitcoin could experience a significant pullback of 50–60%, potentially targeting prices between $44,100 and $34,409. While this scenario is consistent with past bear market corrections, analysts caution that it is a potential setup rather than a certainty, emphasizing the importance of prudent risk management.
Bitcoin’s future trajectory will depend on its ability to maintain key support levels and attract continued ETF investment. For now, the market remains cautiously optimistic but is overshadowed by technical vulnerabilities and shifting institutional sentiment. Macroeconomic developments are likely to play a decisive role in shaping the next phase of the cryptocurrency landscape.