4E: Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, with macro expectations and capital flows still dominating the trend

On December 1, according to 4E observation, Bitcoin stabilized after a slight rebound. The current recovery is more driven by improved risk sentiment rather than internal factors within the crypto sector. The stock market also saw a slight increase, and the market estimates about an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. However, high inflation and weak employment data still weigh on the market. Federal Reserve officials have made slightly dovish statements, but the impact is limited. This week, macro attention will shift to unemployment claims and ADP employment data. Meanwhile, AI-related credit spreads and CDS continue to rise, indicating that funds are reassessing the strongest trading logic of the past year. Liquidity remains weak, with continued outflows from crypto ETFs and net liquidation of asset products. Several net asset values have fallen below $1 per unit, and risk aversion sentiment has risen significantly. A certain exchange is once again in the spotlight, as its Bitcoin reserves approach the breakeven point and its stock price has been included in the MSCI delisting watchlist, potentially becoming a key market variable before year-end. Currently, the correlation between BTC and AI tech stocks has increased, while the Fear and Greed Index has declined, indicating that the short-term sentiment recovery is limited. In terms of options structure, demand for downside protection remains strong. Although open interest leans bullish, both implied volatility and positions have declined, and positions are starting to lighten. If there is a rebound to around 95,000 USDT, spot selling pressure from ETF redemptions may occur, continuing the range-bound logic; the 80,000–82,000 USD range is the main support zone, and a break below could trigger systemic stop-loss liquidity. 4E reminds investors: In the short term, BTC trends are still driven by the resonance of macro expectations, capital flows, and options structure. The rebound is more due to external risk appetite rather than improvements in on-chain fundamentals. The bottom still needs confirmation from capital inflows, and a warming of sentiment depends on ETF flows and the dynamics of a certain exchange. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data and spot liquidity performance.