In late November 2025, Bitcoin's value slipped beneath the $84,000 mark, signaling a turbulent period for the cryptocurrency. Market experts pointed to escalating global economic challenges and tightening liquidity as key factors behind the downturn. The selloff, fueled by significant selling activity on Wall Street and negative developments in Asian markets, resulted in daily losses exceeding 7%, with BTC/USD reaching as low as $83,814 on Bitstamp.
The downward momentum intensified after U.S. traders returned from the Thanksgiving break, further weakening an already fragile market. QCP Capital identified several contributing factors, including interest rate hikes in Japan, reduced market liquidity, and the possibility of Bitcoin sales by Strategy. They also noted that the Federal Reserve’s eventual conclusion of quantitative tightening could provide some relief in the future.
Bearish sentiment was reinforced by technical analysis. Bitcoin’s inability to maintain support above the $90,000–$92,000 range sparked fears of a “dead cat bounce,” with the $80,000 level now seen as a crucial psychological threshold. Analysts warned that a drop below $80,000 could open the door to deeper support zones between $69,000 and $62,000, potentially ushering in a bear market. Additional signs of short-term pessimism included the Coinbase Premium turning negative and a rise in open interest, leading some traders to predict an inevitable slide toward $50,000.
Despite the prevailing caution, certain institutional investors demonstrated ongoing faith in Bitcoin’s future. Texas, for example, committed $10 million to Bitcoin investments, splitting the purchase between $5 million in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and a planned $5 million in direct holdings. This move reflected a broader trend among governments and major institutions, with entities like Wisconsin, Harvard, and Abu Dhabi’s ADIC also increasing their Bitcoin exposure. However, some critics argued that ETF investments do not meet Texas’s $500 billion market cap requirement for official reserves.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, Michael Saylor’s Strategy indicated it might sell Bitcoin under certain “stress conditions,” a notable shift from its previous commitment to never sell. CEO Phong Le explained that sales could occur if the company’s market-to-net-asset-value ratio fell below one—a threshold that was crossed in mid-November. This development raised concerns about the sustainability of Strategy’s aggressive accumulation approach, especially after Bitcoin’s 32% drop from its all-time high.
On-chain analysis revealed that long-term holders (LTHs) were offloading significant amounts of Bitcoin, with their collective holdings dropping to 13.6 million BTC by the end of November. This rapid decrease coincided with Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $120,000 to $80,000, suggesting that the current cycle may be nearing exhaustion. Analysts cautioned that without renewed buying interest, the market could face further capitulation, making the $85,000 support level especially important in the near term.
The week’s events highlighted the complex interplay between global economic trends, institutional strategies, and on-chain activity, resulting in heightened volatility. While some market participants believe a long-term bottom may be forming, others remain wary of a sustained downturn. According to QCP Capital, the upcoming trading sessions will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can regain stability and potentially close out 2025 on a positive note.