ARbitの‌価格ARB

🟡 No Rate Cut Coming! 🏦📉 BlackRock says the Fed won’t lower interest rates yet. 📊 97% chance of no cut (CME data) 🔥 Inflation still high 💼 Strong job market 📅 First rate cut expected in September or later. 💬 What it means: Markets might stay flat, USD stays strong 💪, and crypto could feel some pressure. $PI $BTC $ETH $SOL $TRX $SEI $DOGE $INIT $SIGN $SAHARA $BABY $OBOL $OM $WCT $ARB $UNI

$IKA waiting for 10x pump 🚀 $BTC $NFP $LQTY $ARB $TON $MEMEFI $TAO $PENGU

In the past week Arbitrum TVL increased from $2.26B to $2.95B Chain revenue (24H): $42K App revenue (24H): $391K DEX volume (24H): $763M Perps volume (24H): $421M $ARB price: $0.41

$ARB Ranging in High R:R Zone – Breakout Targets at $1/$2/$5 🔹 Trend: Macro downtrend intact, price rejected from descending trendline multiple times. 🔹 Current Drawdown: ~84% from ATH – indicating deep retracement and potential reaccumulation phase. 🔹 Structure: Price consolidating within a defined accumulation range between $0.30–$0.40. Demand is stepping in near range lows with wicks indicating buyer absorption. Breakout Condition: → HTF (weekly) close above $0.48 with strong volume = structural breakout → Confirmed breakout above range high + trendline = bullish market structure shift Upside Targets: $1.00 → $2.00 → $5.00 Invalidation Zone: → Clean HTF close below $0.24 = invalidation of accumulation thesis → Until then, dips into demand remain buy zones; invalidation only triggered on structural breakdown R/R Outlook: → Wide stop, but multi-x reward setup → Favorable for long-term positional entries with defined HTF structure Accumulation evident in key weekly demand zone. Break above $0.48 = trigger for bullish continuation structure. Until then, watch for HTF sweep + reclaim setups and volume confirmation.

The Altcoin Season Index has recently shown signs of recovery, but the crypto market in late July 2025 remains in "Bitcoin Season". 📈 Index Snapshot & Recent Trend As of July 31, 2025, the Altcoin Season Index registered at 41 (up from 35 on July 30). Earlier readings: mid-July at ~36, indicating a modest rebound from earlier lows (~15–25). In late July, one source noted the index had climbed to 53, the highest in months though still below the altseason threshold of 75. 🔍 What Does It Mean? Despite the uptick, the index remains well below the 75 threshold required to declare a true Altcoin Season, especially given that only around 25–41% of top 100 altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin. Thus, the market is still firmly in Bitcoin Season with Bitcoin dominating the scene - many altcoins continue to lag in price performance. 🚦 Why the Uptick Matters Historically, when the index rebounds from very low levels (like the recent ~15–25 range), it often suggests the bearish altcoin phase might be bottoming. Still, several macro factors are necessary before a full altcoin bull market begins: 1. Bitcoin dominance needs to drop significantly, ideally into the 40% range. 2. Index must cross 50 into neutral territory, then push above 75. 3. Broader momentum in ETH and major alt ecosystems, buoyed by ETF approvals and regulatory clarity. 🧠 What Analysts Are Saying Experts view 2025’s delayed altcoin season not as dead, but delayed. A true transition may still happen in Q3 or Q4 of 2025 as Bitcoin stabilizes and institutional appetite shifts . Positive catalysts include: Bitcoin consolidating near resistance ($118K–123K), possibly allowing alt capital to flow. Altcoin ETF approvals - especially for Ethereum and Solana. A potential on‑chain regulation shift or macro easing. Signs of institutional rotation toward altcoins like ETH, ARB, AAVE, ADA, etc. 🧘‍♂️ What Investors Should Consider Current phase = Bitcoin Season: Altcoins likely remain under pressure or only show isolated gains. Opportunity zone: Use this period to research high-quality altcoins, dollar-cost average into selective positions, and wait for clearer macro and index signals. Monitor key indicators: Altcoin Season Index → Sustain above or near 50, target 75+. Bitcoin Dominance Index → decline toward ~40%. Ethereum and top-tier altcoin activity, inflows, and broader adoption. 📊 Summary Table Metric Current Status Altseason Threshold Altcoin Season Index ~41 (up from 35–36) ≥ 75 Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) ~60–64% < 50% Market Phase Bitcoin Season Altcoin Season Likelihood of True Altcoin Season Moderate Q3–Q4 2025 or later Although altcoins are showing signs of recovery, the full cycle shift toward altcoin dominance has not occurred yet. Patient positioning and strategic monitoring are key.