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May 25 Financial Breakfast: Federal Reserve Governor Waller joins the move away from dovish tendencies, gold price may aim for the 4,600 mark, US-Iran talks may be held next week, oil price plunges over 5%

Golden Ten Data reported on May 25 that, as signs emerged that the United States and Iran were close to reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation concerns, spot gold prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday and are now trading around $4,564 per ounce, up 1.35%. Spot silver rose more than 3%, climbing above $78 per ounce; platinum and palladium also rose. U.S. officials stated on Sunday that negotiations on the specific wording of the agreement are still ongoing, and final approval from both sides may take several days. U.S. President Trump said he would not "rush" to reach an agreement. Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that as Iran and Washington advanced peace talks, "some good news" regarding the Strait of Hormuz might appear in the coming hours. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that the energy shock caused by the Iran war could intensify inflation, increasing bets on monetary tightening, leading to a decline in gold prices. Since the sharp drop in gold prices at the early stage of the Iran war, gold has been trading in a relatively narrow range as investors weigh between high interest rates and high inflation and low growth prospects. Since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, gold prices have fallen by approximately 14%.

Golden Ten Data reported on May 25 that Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at Australian wealth management firm AMP, stated that even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement, it is unlikely that the global oil price benchmark will return to pre-conflict levels this year. He pointed out that it will still take some time for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz again, and the market may price in a higher risk premium to address potential future supply disruptions. Before the conflict, WTI crude oil was trading at about 67 US dollars per barrel. Oliver estimates that, taking into account the additional risk premium, WTI crude oil may be around 80 US dollars per barrel by the end of the year, while Brent crude oil could be around 85 US dollars per barrel. "If the nuclear issue is not resolved, oil prices could be even higher," he said.