Bitcoin lead narrows yet still outpaces other assets despite Q3 downturn: NYDIG

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin recorded a modest 2.5% gain in Q3 despite market sell-offs.
• NYDIG notes Bitcoin's year-to-date gain stands at 49.2%.

According to a recent note from New York Digital Investment Group’s (NYDIG) research division, Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset class in 2024 despite a subdued third quarter. The alpha crypto’s year-to-date gains of 49.2% still outpace other assets, though its lead has narrowed amid significant market challenges.

NYDIG’s research head Greg Cipolaro noted in an Oct. 4 report that Bitcoin gained just 2.5% in Q3, rebounding from Q2 losses but constrained by significant sell-offs. The asset faced headwinds from Mt. Gox and Genesis creditor distributions totaling nearly $13.5 billion, as well as large Bitcoin sales by the US and German governments.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin bucked seasonal trends with a 10% gain in September, typically a bearish month. Cipolaro highlighted continued demand from US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which gathered $4.3 billion in total flows for the quarter, as a supporting factor. Increased corporate ownership from firms like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital also bolstered Bitcoin’s performance.

Post-Q3 recovery period

The cryptocurrency’s price has shown signs of recovery in recent days, climbing 3.06% over the past 24 hours to $63,905 as of Monday morning in Hong Kong. This uptick coincided with the release of positive US jobs data, which showed 254,000 jobs added in September, exceeding forecasts and fueling optimism about the US economy.

Cipolaro also noted that Bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation with US stocks continued to rise during Q3, ending the quarter at 0.46. However, he maintained that Bitcoin still offers significant diversification benefits to multi-asset portfolios due to its relatively low correlation with other asset classes.

The research highlighted that other assets, such as precious metals and certain equity industries, have made gains against Bitcoin, with most asset classes experiencing a “banner year.” This narrowing of Bitcoin’s lead underscores the competitive nature of the current investment landscape.

Impact of US jobs data and elections to Bitcoin market

Looking ahead, Cipolaro expects Q4 to be traditionally bullish for Bitcoin, with several potential catalysts on the horizon. The upcoming US election on Nov. 5 is anticipated to play a significant role in market performance, with Cipolaro suggesting larger gains if former President Donald Trump, who has embraced the crypto industry, wins.

“While both candidates will be improvements over the Biden administration regarding their attitude towards crypto, Trump if he wins, will deliver bigger gains for the asset class given his full-throated endorsement of the industry,” Cipolaro said.

Additionally, factors such as global monetary easing and stimulus measures in China could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Cipolaro reassured investors, stating that while investors “might be frustrated with the rangebound trading over the past 6 months,” it remains that “Bitcoin is exactly where it was at this time in the previous two.”