Bitcoin Awaits Fed Decision as Bullish Pattern Emerges and Trading Range Tightens

Bitcoin’s value is displaying a cautious sense of optimism as anticipation mounts for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement. As the market braces for a critical week,

is holding above the $115,000 mark, moving within a tight band between $114,600 and $117,100. Analyst Axel Adler observes that this phase of consolidation signals a positive trend, with buyers slowly asserting dominance despite the lack of a decisive breakout. Rather than making speculative moves, participants are awaiting clear signals from the Fed, with both traders and long-term holders closely assessing how the central bank’s decision could influence the market.

Recently, a strong bullish mood has characterized Bitcoin’s price movements, with the Advanced Sentiment Index showing 68.8%, approaching levels associated with heightened optimism. This upbeat sentiment among market players indicates a general expectation of rising prices. Adler contends that these conditions could pave the way for an upward breakout, especially if the Federal Reserve opts for a moderate rate cut, which may align technical indicators, market mood, and macroeconomic trends to support Bitcoin’s growth. Historically, such sentiment patterns have coincided with notable price rallies, particularly when driven by significant economic developments.

Technically, Bitcoin is forming a consolidation structure near $116,607 on the 8-hour chart. The price has stabilized near recent highs following a rebound from early September’s low around $110,000. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has shifted upward, reflecting renewed strength, while the 200-day SMA remains a crucial support at $115,387. The main resistance now stands at $123,217, and surpassing $117,500 could raise the odds of testing this barrier. Alternatively, falling below $114,000 could open the door to further declines toward the $112,000–$113,000 zone.

The forthcoming FOMC meeting is widely seen as a major trigger for Bitcoin’s next move. Data from the CME FedWatch tool suggests a 96% likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate reduction, with only a 4% probability for a larger 50 bps cut. Polymarket data also points to broad expectations for a 25 bps decrease. Market participants are paying close attention to the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting, as even slight changes in tone can sway sentiment. Some market watchers believe that much of the anticipated volatility is already factored in, shifting the focus to how the Fed’s guidance will be interpreted.

Going forward, Bitcoin needs to overcome key resistance points to maintain its upward momentum. Holding above $118,000 could mark the beginning of a new bullish chapter, potentially setting the stage for fresh record highs. Conversely, dropping below $116,000 may lead to a correction toward $112,000, which serves as both a psychological threshold and the 100-day SMA. The market remains on edge, with both bullish and bearish camps waiting for a decisive cue from the Federal Reserve before taking significant positions.