Market volatility indicator still points to $135K Bitcoin within 100 days
Bitcoin price continues to consolidate higher above $100,000 after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to its 30-year average of 20, down from a peak of 60 earlier in 2025. This decline follows a US-China trade deal on May 12, which introduced a 90-day tariff pause and a 115% reduction on both sides. The agreement has fueled a "risk-on" sentiment, boosting Bitcoin and equities as investors lean into higher-risk assets, according to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson. The analyst said, “$VIX dropped substantially yesterday on news of a potential China trade deal. It is now at 'normal' levels. This will be a 'risk on' environment for the foreseeable future.”
Adding to the bullish sentiment, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate dropped to 2.3% year-over-year in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, down from 2.4% in March and below consensus forecasts of 2.4%. This softer-than-expected CPI reading signals easing inflationary pressure, potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, assuming other economic indicators align. With respect to the current macroeconomic dynamics—lower volatility, cooling inflation, and a trade war truce- it creates favorable market conditions for Bitcoin.
Earlier this month, Peterson noted that BTC could reach $135,000 within 100 days, citing a drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from 55 to 25, signaling a "risk-on" environment. With 95% accuracy, his model links low VIX levels to increased investor confidence in riskier assets like Bitcoin.
After posting one of its least bullish phases in two years during April, Bitcoin sentiment flipped drastically to its highest reading in 2025. Data from CryptoQuant indicated a dramatic rise in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index, soaring from 20 to 80, a level historically associated with significant price surges. This shift, driven by rising spot demand outpacing supply, reflects patterns observed after the April 2024 halving, suggesting Bitcoin could be poised for further gains.
Likewise, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted that while the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is climbing, currently at 53.3%, it remains below the "overloaded" zone above 80%. The analyst discussed the possibility of a market “upswing,” expressing hope for a successful test and surpassing Bitcoin’s all-time high near $110,000.
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index. Source: X.com
Source: CoinTelegraph
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Funding rates saw a bullish sentiment as Bitcoin remained above $100K.
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