Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why It’s Down, Who’s Selling, and When the Recovery Could Start

By mid-2025, Bitcoin had shown remarkable resilience in the face of turbulence that might have crushed a more retail-driven market. Much of this strength could be traced to an unlikely alliance: corporate treasuries and spot Bitcoin ETFs—two institutional powerhouses quietly absorbing new supply and providing a reliable demand base. This partnership allowed Bitcoin to resist the effects of economic tightening and rising rates. Yet, as the year has progressed, that sturdy foundation has started to shift, with profound implications for traders and long-term holders alike.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Why Is the Bitcoin Price Down? What’s Different This Time?

A huge factor in the recent bitcoin price weakness is changing behavior among its biggest backers—corporates and major institutions. Until recently, companies like MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) seemed to have limitless appetite, building a world-leading Bitcoin treasury of over 674,000 BTC. But in 2025, their buying has cooled off sharply. Just 4,300 BTC were added in the third quarter—by far the slowest pace in a year. This isn’t just a change of heart: the premium for owning shares of BTC-heavy companies has collapsed, going from a flood of leveraged buyers to a trickle. Where investors once paid as much as 208% above Bitcoin’s net asset value, now that premium is just 4%. This shift means less capital for treasury stockpiling, easing the pressure that kept the bitcoin price strong.

Other public companies have run into similar trouble, as seen with Japan’s Metaplanet, which recently saw its share price fall below even the value of its bitcoin holdings. Tactical measures like buybacks and refinancing abound. The recent merger of Strive and Semler Scientific also shows that the “Bitcoin treasury on the balance sheet” movement is entering a slower, more cautious phase, affecting the bitcoin price accordingly.

Are ETFs Still Protecting the Bitcoin Price—or Making It More Volatile?

Bitcoin ETFs exploded in popularity and, for most of 2025, reliably soaked up the supply, offering a powerful safety net for the bitcoin price. For instance, the beginning of October saw crypto ETFs absorb almost $6 billion in just two weeks. But by month’s end, large redemptions flipped the narrative and began pushing the bitcoin price lower. BlackRock’s IBIT, once a powerhouse, suffered the largest single-day outflow of $291 million since summer.

What’s changed? In short, financial conditions got rough, and rate expectations shifted. Institutional investors don’t have the same bullish certainty, leading to dramatic swings—sometimes inflow waves, sometimes outflow surges. ETFs are now a two-way street: they can support the bitcoin price, but they can also amplify corrections, depending on Wall Street’s mood.

What Do On-Chain Data and Whale Moves Tell Us About Bitcoin Price Trends?

On-chain signals are also sending a powerful message about the bitcoin price. Most notably, even long-term holders—typically the “diamond hands” of crypto—have started selling in meaningful volume. More than 327,000 BTC left long-term holders’ wallets in the past month. Historically, this kind of distribution marks periods of stress, as persistent selling can overpower the new demand and pressure the bitcoin price lower.

These on-chain outflows coincided with failed rally attempts in late October and November, a sign that markets lacked conviction. Glassnode data shows that while net flows have slowed, ETF holdings (totaling about $150 billion) still indicate faith in the long-term bitcoin price. Notably, during times of fear, certain whales are betting on a reversal. The famed "Hyperunit" whale who made $200 million on the last crash recently went long again, adding $55 million worth of BTC and ETH, hinting that seasoned players may see an opportunity in the current bitcoin price zone.

How Are Miners and Public Companies Affecting the Bitcoin Price?

The alignment of miner operations with the bitcoin price has rarely been this important. The average miner production cost has soared to around $114,000 per BTC, sometimes overtaking the actual bitcoin price—putting enormous pressure on their finances. This is forcing miners to sell even more aggressively, or branch out into other fields like AI infrastructure and cloud computing.

Corporate bitcoin treasuries are also under stress. Data from SosoValue in October show that, while non-mining public companies bought over 7,200 BTC, the overwhelming bulk of these purchases occurred in the first week. By late month, the buying engine had stalled. Of the largest 38 corporate BTC holders, 24 are now underwater, holding coins bought at higher levels than today’s bitcoin price. Some, like Sequans, have even begun selling back to the market to pay down debt.

Is the Bitcoin Price Still Following Its Famous Cycles, or Just Acting Like Another Risk Asset?

With both ETF and corporate support faltering, the bitcoin price now closely mirrors global risk appetite—rising with stock market rallies and falling during risk-off periods. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s once-sacred four-year halving cycle matters less in 2025, replaced by heightened sensitivity to interest rates, dollar moves, and global liquidity trends. In other words, the bitcoin price increasingly behaves like a high-beta growth stock—rewarded in easy money environments and pressured when liquidity dries up.

Could the Bitcoin Price Rebound? Will “Stealth QE” Save the Crypto Market?

There’s a wild card that could shake things up for the bitcoin price: the US government’s liquidity moves. According to analysts like Arthur Hayes, current policies—while not called “quantitative easing”—are boosting liquidity through backdoor mechanisms like repo operations and aggressive deficit spending. If this trend intensifies, a flood of capital could once again chase bitcoin price highs as risk appetite returns to global markets.

Is This the End of the Bull Market, or the Start of a New Opportunity?

Despite the doom and gloom, there are signs the bottom may be near for the bitcoin price. Most quick-trigger retail sellers have been flushed out by forced liquidations. ETF inflows, while tepid since summer, mean $150 billion-plus in institutional bitcoin price bets are sitting tight. And as the more impulsive sellers leave the field, new buyers—whether sovereign funds, fintech innovators, or a resurgence of retail—eventually step in. Bitwise and QCP Capital analysts remain cautiously optimistic that once macro headwinds relent, new buyers will rescue the bitcoin price and drive a renewed cycle.

What Does This Mean for Solana and Other Altcoins?

The volatility facing the bitcoin price hasn’t spared leading altcoins. Solana (SOL), for instance, has followed bitcoin price swings but with amplified highs and lows. Still, developer activity and usage metrics point to strong fundamentals. If the bitcoin price begins to climb again, assets like Solana could see even sharper risk-on rallies.

Conclusion: Where Is the Bitcoin Price Headed Next?

The story of the bitcoin price in 2025 is a story of evolution. The old foundations—steady ETF inflows and aggressive corporate buying—aren’t as stable as they once were, and volatility is back in force. But as the market matures, new patterns will emerge. For investors and traders, watching ETF flows, on-chain data, and global liquidity trends is now essential for predicting the next bitcoin price rally or correction. History shows that when one source of bitcoin price strength fades, another appears—sometimes explosively so.

For those who remain patient and keep up with these shifting tides, the changes in the bitcoin price may unlock new opportunities just as previous cycles have done, making 2025 a pivotal year for smart, forward-looking crypto investors.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.