Stock Market Today: Dow Jumps, Nasdaq Climbs — What’s Driving the Market

U.S. equity futures rose Monday morning, with investors increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve could move toward interest rate cuts as soon as December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% in premarket trading, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 climbed 1.0%. That built on Friday’s broad-based rally, where the Dow closed at 46,245 (+1.1%), the S&P 500 at 6,603 (+1.0%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 22,273 (+0.9%), capping a strong finish to last week.

Traders are heading into a holiday-shortened week—U.S. markets will close Thursday for Thanksgiving and shut early Friday—with renewed optimism. A more dovish tilt from Fed officials, combined with easing Treasury yields and a shift in sentiment around mega-cap tech stocks, is helping drive bullish momentum across Wall Street. With rate-cut bets rising and key economic data still to come, investors are positioning ahead of what could be a pivotal December for policy and markets.

Rate Cut Bets Surge: What the Fed Signals Mean for Stocks

The rally is largely fueled by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in the near term. New York Fed President John Williams recently signaled the central bank may be open to “further adjustment,” which traders interpreted as a dovish shift. Market pricing now reflects roughly a 75–80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting—nearly double the probability from just a week earlier.

At the same time, investors are keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, including October retail sales and producer price figures due later this week. These reports could shape the Fed’s tone and timing. With limited macro releases in the wake of last month’s U.S. government shutdown, traders remain cautious. Still, with Treasury yields easing and AI-driven tech names rebounding, the risk-on tone has returned, at least for now.

Which Stock Sectors Are Soaring on Fed Pivot Bets

Friday’s market rally saw gains across the board, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors closing in positive territory—a rare show of broad conviction. Materials stocks led the pack, climbing 2.2%, while health care rose 2.1%, consumer discretionary added 2.0%, and communication services advanced 1.9%. Real estate also saw strength, up 1.3%, as falling bond yields improved the outlook for interest-rate–sensitive assets.

Retail names caught a boost after Walmart raised its guidance, reinforcing optimism around consumer spending heading into the holidays. Homebuilders and utilities—typically beneficiaries of lower borrowing costs—were also in demand. The simultaneous strength in both cyclical and defensive sectors suggests investors are positioning for a softer policy stance without fully pricing in a slowdown, signaling cautious optimism heading into year-end.

Top 5 Stock Movers Today: Health Care, Biotech, and AI Lead

• Oscar Health (OSCR)

+20% — Shares surged after reports that the Biden administration plans to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for two more years. The move would directly benefit Oscar’s ACA-focused business model, triggering a sharp rally.

• Centene Corp. (CNC)

+9% — Another major ACA insurer, Centene jumped on the same policy news. The company stands to gain from continued government support for health-plan subsidies, boosting investor sentiment across the managed-care space.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO)

–10% — The Danish pharma giant plunged after announcing its Alzheimer’s drug trial for oral semaglutide failed to show meaningful results. The miss disappointed investors who were hoping for a breakthrough in the highly competitive neuro space.

• Biogen (BIIB)

+5% — Biogen gained as Novo’s failure potentially clears the path for its own Alzheimer’s treatment, Leqembi. Investors viewed the development as a competitive advantage in a race for market share in cognitive therapies.

• Alphabet (GOOGL)

+3.5% — The Google parent extended recent gains on continued AI optimism. Following last week’s unveiling of its Gemini 3 model, shares rose again as tech investors rotated back into mega-cap growth.

Can the Market Rally Hold? What Investors Are Watching Next

Market sentiment is skewing bullish, underpinned by falling bond yields, subdued volatility, and a renewed appetite for risk. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to around 23.4 on Friday, signaling greater investor confidence. Breadth was strong, with advancing stocks outpacing decliners nearly 3-to-1 on the NYSE — a sign of broad participation in the rally.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped toward 4.0%, easing pressure on rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Crude prices edged lower on reports that U.S. and Ukrainian officials are exploring a potential peace plan for Russia, which could ease geopolitical risk and global energy concerns.

As the holiday-shortened week unfolds, attention now turns to economic data and any fresh Fed commentary. Key retail sales and inflation figures could sway expectations ahead of the December FOMC meeting. With rate cut hopes priced in and mega-cap tech stabilizing, investors are watching closely to see whether the recent momentum has legs — or whether volatility will return heading into year-end.