All-TIME Bitcoin HIGHS Expected by Next Week - Maximize Your Gains
👇1-10) After Bitcoin’s consolidation, we're witnessing significant movements in the crypto market. Bitget’s exchange token BGB surged +16% following its Launchpad introduction, and Kaspa’s KAS token gained +36% with the introduction of KRC20, Kaspa’s blockDAG, which required users to purchase KAS tokens first. Binance's BNB token has hit an all-time high with a market cap of $105bn, while Ethena’s TVL has reached $3.1bn as funding rates expand, allowing ENA to rally by +10% during the last week.
👇2-10) We are bullish on Bitcoin. On May 21, we wrote, ‘Bitcoin: Multiple Buy Signals Activated, Don’t Miss Out. ' On May 26, we predicted, ‘Bitcoin New All-Time Highs Coming?’ Our report on May 30, ‘Inflation is the MAIN driver for Bitcoin,’ provided a solid thesis for the coming rally.
👇3-10) For traders, it was time to strap on risk and get more beta exposure. As we predicted, Bitcoin mining stocks are also on the rise. Bitdeer rallied +13% last night on the back of Tether’s $100m private funding round (potentially adding another $50m), while Bitfarms rallied as a prime takeover candidate in the sector. See our May 31 report.
👇4-10) The US economy is slowing, and for now, this is a good thing. GDP came in only a touch above 1%. The ISM manufacturing index has been in a contraction mode for several months, and the employment side keeps weakening, negatively impacting consumer spending. Last night, another critical and forward-looking job metric, job openings, slowed down significantly. All this will lead to lower inflation.
👇5-10) We will get more employment data this Friday. A weaker surprise could bring back rate cuts, and next week, we will get the CPI inflation report. If CPI YoY is 3.3% or lower, it will likely push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin changes direction based on CPI higher/lower than the previous month (higher CPI, bearish Bitcoin, lower bullish)
👇6-10) On May 15, we turned bullish as inflation came in at 3.4%, which was lower than the 3.5% in the previous month. Back then, Bitcoin was trading near 62,000 – which coincided with our new line in the sand where we had to be bullish. Our preferred medium-term trend model switched bullish on May 16 at 65,000. A close above 71,500 (last price of 70,500) will trigger another buy signal.
👇7-10) Bitcoin has also broken above the mini-triangle (purple line), with the larger triangle (purple dotted line) likely breaking within the 71,500 area. A close above, triggered by lower US employment or inflation, will undoubtedly target new all-time highs between this Friday and next Wednesday. Hence, we expect that by the end of next week, Bitcoin will make new all-time highs (>73,500).
👇8-10) The SEC has posted warning tweets, a pattern that preceded the immediate approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs and other SEC-regulated crypto products. An Ethereum ETF might soon be announced (S-1 approval). Nevertheless, we prefer Bitcoin, and positioning is also shifting back to Bitcoin.
👇9-10) Since Saturday, $1.6bn in additional Bitcoin futures exposure has been deployed. Last night, Fidelity had $+378m in Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows, Ark had $+140m, and Blackrock had +275m inflows ($+880m in one day). The second highest ever.
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👇10-10) The options market expects Bitcoin to move by +/-6.6% by the end of next week, aiming for a price of 76,000 - in case of a rally. Implied vol is still relatively expensive at 52-53%. Buying upside leverage through perpetual futures or Bitcoin miners might be the better strategy with convex upside. Nevertheless, there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will make all-time highs soon. It’s time to strap on even more risk.
