According to the latest research report by VanEck, under its so-called "basic scenario", the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050. The report, co-authored by Matthew Sigel, head of the company's digital assets department, and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush, predicts that Bitcoin's adoption as a global transaction medium and reserve asset could fundamentally change the international financial system.
In this basic scenario, VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will handle 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade; central banks will hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC. In addition, the report points out that Bitcoin's scalability issues - a major barrier to its adoption - will be resolved through emerging second-layer (L2) solutions for Bitcoin. These solutions may enable Bitcoin to better support a global financial system meeting the needs of developing countries.
Despite an optimistic outlook, VanEck acknowledges several risks that might face bitcoin growth. One main concern is future massive energy demand for bitcoin mining which may require new innovations in chip design and energy production. Moreover, with decreasing inflation rate for bitcoin transactions fees must become miners' primary source of income to maintain sustainable operations.The report also emphasizes competition threats from other cryptocurrencies and potential technological advancements against bitcoin.