Unusual U.S. Non-farm Payrolls in August: 70% Probability Below Expectations

News on September 6, Forexlive analyst Adam Button pointed out that the US non-farm employment report for August frequently exhibits a seasonal anomaly: in the past 23 years of August reports, unadjusted data was lower than expected for 17 years. It's worth noting that because the data from the past two years exceeded expectations, albeit only by 15,000 and 17,000 respectively, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may be improving their seasonal adjustment methods. Over the past two decades, there has been a seventy percent chance that data falls short of expectations. Another point to note is that disappointing job figures in July might have been affected by Hurricane Berly and could rebound in August.