CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 52%. The likelihood of the Fed making a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, while there's a 50.5% chance for a cumulative cut of 75 basis points, and a 19.3% chance for an overall reduction of up to100 basis points.