Trump's relationship with Bitcoin: what his victory means for BTC investors

Bitcoin surged to a three-month high as the ‘Trump trade’ gained momentum ahead of the US election.
Donald Trump is leading the way on Polymarket data, which is seen as favourable to the cryptocurrency market.

The cryptocurrency market showed significant resilience as equities were mixed amid volatility in Asia.

Bitcoin [BTC] surged to a three-month high, reflecting a sharp rise in trading activity as the so-called ‘Trump trade’ gained momentum.

In early trading on 21 October, BTC reached $68,496.98, up more than 6 percent from the past week and more than 8 percent over the last month.

This happened as investors were just two weeks away from the US presidential election ;

Trump's Rising Odds of Winning and Its Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets

Polymarket data shows Donald Trump leading with 61.1 per cent of the projected vote, while Kamala Harris is trailing with 38.8 per cent.

Therefore, with no major economic events this week, the market is focused on corporate earnings and election risk.

It's clear, therefore, that Bitcoin has risen as Trump's outlook has risen, with his administration seen as more lax on cryptocurrency regulation.

His tariff, tax and immigration policies are seen as inflationary and could boost the dollar and benefit the cryptocurrency market ;

Executives get involved

Commenting on this, Chris Weston, head of research at Australian broker Pepperstone, emphasised that investors could experience rising fees when hedging against dollar volatility and other risks associated with their portfolios.

Weston said;

‘With the US election just 15 days away, traders need to decide whether now is the right time to start trading the election with more confidence.’ .;

Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, joined the debate, adding that rising real interest rates are providing support for the dollar, particularly against the three major currencies.

‘We expect this trend to continue through the election and likely long after if Trump wins.’ .;

Is Trump likely to win?

Indeed, in a recent post on X, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital Firmwide, published a policy scorecard assessing the cryptocurrency positions of presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

He said.

‘There is limited downside risk from a Harris win and potentially explosive upside if Trump wins.’

As expected, a detailed examination of the scorecard revealed that Donald Trump outperforms Kamala Harris in seven of the nine core points assessed ;

Therefore, with only a few days left before the US presidential election, it will be interesting to watch how the cryptocurrency market reacts during and after the election.