Trump's odds fall 10% from highs on Polymarket, Kalshi while 'whale' denies political agenda
Ahead of Tuesday's upcoming Presidential election, all major prediction markets continue to project former President Donald Trump as having a greater chance of victory than his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.
However, his odds have fallen an average of 3.8% across prediction markets in the past week, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, with significant drops on Kalshi and Polymarket, a favorite of crypto investors.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump's odds of victory have fallen over 10% from their all-time high values. Trump's high of 71.5% on Polymarket, reached on July 16, has since fallen to 59.1%, while his odds on Kalshi have fallen from its high value of 65.2% on Oct. 29 to its current value of 55%. (Kalshi's prediction market became available on Oct. 4.)
Trump's odds on Polymarket dipped as low as 57.1% on Saturday—within a 15-point margin of Harris's 42.8% odds—before recovering slightly. Election-watchers have kept a close eye on early voting returns and late polls, one of which shows Harris with a large lead among Puerto Ricans in Florida following a remark made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally last week.
On Polymarket, Harris also took the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, two swing states seen as critical on the path to victory. "Kamala Harris is gaining ground," the prediction marketplace posted on X .
Trump 'whale' denies political agenda
Meanwhile, a French man who aroused attention by placing large bets on Trump's victory denied any political agenda or connections in an interview with the Wall Street Journal .
The man, who calls himself Théo, described himself as a Frenchman who used to live in the U.S. and work as a trader for banks. Théo claimed his bets were made with his own money after he concluded the polls were underestimating Trump, and denied any affiliation with political campaigns or even any personal political agenda.
“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo told the Journal in an email. Théo claimed a Trump victory would net him $80 million, more than double his initial investment of $30 million, and assessed Trump's odds of victory at 80-90%.
