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Macro Outlook for Next Week: The U.S. election is approaching the ultimate battle, and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are nearly fully priced in

Macro Outlook for Next Week: The U.S. election is approaching the ultimate battle, and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are nearly fully priced in

Bitget2024/11/03 10:34
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Next week's U.S. election could be the ultimate battle, potentially triggering a nuclear-level warning. The "bullets" of the dollar bulls are fully loaded, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week nearly fully priced in following the worst non-farm payrolls data in nearly four years. Next week's market focus includes the U.S. election, Fed interest rate decision and Bank of England interest rate decision among others; starting from Tuesday next week, America will hold its 2024 presidential election. Many major polls still show Trump and Harris neck-and-neck.

Here are some key macroeconomic points to watch out for in this new week:

Monday: Final Manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone in October;

Tuesday at 09:45: China Caixin Services PMI for October;

Wednesday: Final Services PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone in October and Eurozone PPI MoM for September;

Wednesday at 07:50: Bank of Japan releases minutes from September monetary policy meeting;

Wednesday at 21:30: US Treasury announces borrowing plans for new quarter;

Wednesday at 22:45 : US Global Services PMI final value for October; At 23:00 : US Global Supply Chain Stress Index for October

Thursday at 21h30 : Number of initial jobless claims as of November 2nd ; At 23h00 : Wholesale sales MoM in USA ;

Friday at03h00 : FED publishes interest rate decision ; At03h30 Powell holds press conference on monetary policy ;

Data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion long positions ahead of U.S elections . Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs would support dollar atleast short term . Michael Hartnett , strategist says if Trump wins it might trigger stock market rebound and investors should consider selling . Conversely , if Harris wins , investors should buy on dips . Citigroup also believes that it's time for a pullback in US stocks, especially if Republicans win big. UBS thinks that if Trump wins, gold prices will approach the target of $2900 faster, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2600-2700.

Friday at 23:00 : Initial value of one-year inflation rate expectation for November in USA ; Preliminary consumer confidence index from University of Michigan for November.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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