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QCP Capital2024/11/04 16:00
By: [email protected]

Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race as odds on Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates. Polymarket odds are still in favor of Trump at 55% but have decreased significantly from 66% a week ago.

The sideways price action over the weekend and decrease in leveraged perp positioning (from 30b to 26B across exchanges) suggest that the market remains cautious.

So, is this the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? The options market definitely thinks so as we’ve seen an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-Nov 75k Calls since last Friday. Election-date options positions are also rising with Friday implied vols >87 even as realized vols are at 40.

We expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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