As the United States heads into a closely watched presidential election, crypto analyst James Van Straten has shared his views on Bitcoin’s post-election price trend.
According to Van Straten, Bitcoin is likely to experience a significant upside post-election, regardless of who emerges victorious.
Van Straten’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin, which was created in 2009, is preparing to face a fourth US presidential election. Historical data from previous elections shows that the cryptocurrency has always seen a post-election rally and has never returned to its pre-election price. “If this trend repeats, the BTC price will peak in about a year,” Van Straten said.
Bitcoin's track record in previous US elections is interesting:
- 2012 Elections: In November 2012, Bitcoin was worth around $11. It rose almost 12,000% in a year, reaching over $1,100 in November 2013.
- 2016 Elections: In early November 2016, Bitcoin was trading at around $700. By December 2017, it had risen 3,600% to around $18,000.
- Elections 2020: The November 2020 elections saw Bitcoin surge 478% in a year, reaching a market peak of around $69,000, against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. BTC then reached a record high of over $73,000 in March 2024.
While Bitcoin’s historical post-election rallies have been significant, the scale of each subsequent surge has shown diminishing returns. Bitcoin’s percentage gain between the 2012 and 2016 elections was down 70%, and its percentage gain between 2016 and 2020 was down 87%. Van Straten predicts that if this trend continues, the 2024 post-election rally could see a decline of around 90%, potentially implying a 47.8% increase. This would bring Bitcoin to an estimated price of around $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Van Straten also noted that Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to previous cycles, whether measured from the low that coincided with the crash of FTX in November 2022 or the halving event in April. He noted that this cycle was the worst-performing cycle since the last halving, with Bitcoin only 7% higher than it was during the 50% reduction in mining rewards.
“This adds to the evidence for the theory of diminishing returns,” Van Straten said, reinforcing his prediction of a modest but significant rally following the upcoming election.
*This is not investment advice.
