On November 5th, according to data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, former President Trump's probability of winning the 2024 US election has risen to 61.8%. Polymarket reflects market expectations for various events through user betting. Unlike traditional polls, these platforms pay more attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment, and have attracted more than $3 billion in real money support, becoming an effective reference for analyzing political situations and more persuasive. Currently, Trump's election odds are 1.57, while Harris's are 2.5. These odds reflect the difference in global market confidence in the two candidates winning, and also suggest that Trump is highly likely to win!
Trump's election as US president will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. With Trump's high probability of winning, because he promised to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve of the country, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $2.3 billion in the past week, indicating the market's optimism for Trump's election and Bitcoin. His victory will bring great impetus and strong positive news to Bitcoin!
Several senior market analysts have said that the best time to enter the market is when the election has no result! Market volatility intensifies and investment needs to remain rational.