CryptoChan analysis points out that from the perspective of on-chain data, the Realized Cap HODL Waves indicator of
Bitcoin shows a typical cyclical pattern: before the bull market in 2017 and 2021, the proportion of short-term holders (< 180 days) experienced a rapid decline and then rebounded, accompanied by a sharp rise in price. Currently, this indicator has bottomed out and rebounded again in 2024, indicating that the market may be entering a phase similar to the historical transition from a small bull to a large bull.
CryptoChan believes that this signal may indicate that 2025 will become the peak year of the next cycle. However, the analysis also warns that although historical data can be traced, market trends may still be deeply influenced by uncontrollable factors such as macroeconomic environment, policy changes, and market sentiment. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the evolution of subsequent on-chain data.