CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in the December meeting

CITIC Securities pointed out that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in November 2024 was slightly higher than expected, with healthcare services, leisure hotel industry and government departments being the main contributors, while retail was a major drag. After the effects of hurricanes and strikes dissipated, the data for new non-farm employment rebounded as scheduled in November. The unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating a mild weakening of the US job market. However, wage growth remained robust without significant layoffs from companies; overall health of job market is maintained. After non-farm data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve's interest rate cut were raised. We believe that market expectations for a "soft landing" of US economy will continue at least until Trump takes office next year and maintain our previous judgment that Fed will cut interest rates by 25bps at its December meeting.