Solana Investors HODL Firm: 6-12 Month Cohort Now Controls 27% of SOL Supply

Solana (SOL) investors who acquired the altcoin in the past 6 to 12 months appear to be shifting to a long-term investment strategy, as they now hold a substantial 27% of the total SOL supply.

This spike in accumulation indicates that the altcoin saw strong demand in 2024 compared to other years, which in turn has offered a bullish outlook for the coming one. Does this mean the SOL price will trade at a much higher value in the new year?

Solana Short-Term Holders Have the Upper Hand

One way to know the supply each cohort holds is by looking at the Realized Cap HODL Waves. At its core, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart reveals a cryptocurrency’s on-chain cost basis across various wallet age brackets, highlighting the distribution of holdings by acquisition time.

According to Glassnode, the majority of SOL accumulation occurred this year, with investors holding 26% of the total supply in the 6 to 12-month bracket. The 3 to 6-month cohort holds 13%, while the 1 to 3-month group accounts for 11%. 

In contrast, those who acquired SOL over the past 1 to 5 years hold a smaller share. This suggests that short-term Solana investors are more optimistic about the altcoin’s long-term price action compared to earlier adopters.

Moreover, SOL’s price currently sits above its realized price, suggesting potential for further gains. For context,  realized price represents the value of all bitcoins based on the price at which they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the total supply. 

This metric provides the average on-chain cost basis at which all tokens were acquired. When a crypto’s price is lower than the realized price, a correction might take place. But in this case, Solana’s realized price is $133.34, which is much lower than the current price.

If this trend continues, the altcoin’s value could see significant upside should market conditions improve through 2025.

SOL Price Prediction: To $500 in 2025?

From a technical point of view,  Solana’s price has formed a bull flag on the daily chart. A bull flag is a bullish pattern characterized by two rallies separated by a brief consolidation phase.

As shown below, this pattern begins with a steep price spike, forming the flagpole as buyers overwhelm sellers. Then, a pullback with parallel upper and lower trendlines follows it, creating the flag.

The flag formation initially dragged the SOL price to $213.64. However, the price has since rebounded and is currently trading at $219. 95. Should Solana rise above the flag’s upper trendline, then the value could hit $290 before 2024 closes.

In a highly bullish scenario, SOL’s price might rally to VanEck’s $500 prediction. However, if the broader market condition deteriorates going into 2025, or the Solana investors supply drops, this might not happen. Instead, the token might slide to $189.36.