10x Research: MicroStrategy’s poor stock performance suggests investors are no longer willing to buy Bitcoin at an implied price of $200,000 or more

10x Research posted on X platform recently, emphasizing that MicroStrategy's valuation has been too high in the past few weeks. Investors are severely overpaying for indirect exposure to Bitcoin, rather than using it as a true leveraged investment in Bitcoin. Despite acquiring a large amount of Bitcoin, the stock's performance has been poor, indicating that investors are no longer willing to purchase Bitcoin through MicroStrategy at an implied price of $200,000 or higher, but can buy it directly at a lower price. This indicates that stock investors are no longer willing to support MicroStrategy with inflated NAV. This shift highlights investors' increasingly rational attitude, who previously accepted MicroStrategy as an unofficial term for "Bitcoin leveraged investment".

It is undeniable that BlackRock's Larry Fink and MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor have played a key role in shaping the narrative of this bull market, driving people's strong interest in Bitcoin. Although some investors may not be able to directly purchase Bitcoin ETF, many have turned to MicroStrategy as an alternative.

However, as MicroStrategy's stock price has dropped 44% from its peak and other companies adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset strategy on a smaller scale, the Bitcoin tailwind generated by this narrative seems to be weakening. Combining with other factors, Bitcoin enters the new year with caution, and liquidity, trading volume, and stablecoin issuance momentum will play a key role in determining its direction.