QCP Capital: Upward risks may appear in the upcoming PPI and CPI data, and the Bitcoin options market shows cautious sentiment

QCP Capital's latest analysis suggests that global markets are digesting the effects of the adjustment in expectations for a Fed rate cut. The 10-year US Treasury yield has soared to its highest level since the end of 2023, at 4.8%, and the market does not expect a rate cut before October at the earliest. Stock index futures opened down 1.5%, causing Bitcoin to briefly fall below $90,000 before rebounding above $95,000.

QCP Capital predicts that upcoming PPI and CPI data may pose upward risks. The market is adapting to the reality of a sustained high-interest rate environment, with some investors even considering the possibility of a rate hike. The Bitcoin options market shows a cautious sentiment, with investors extending put options to below the $90,000 support level, and near-term volatility and butterfly spreads remaining high. The VIX index remains at 18.68, indicating that market volatility in January may continue.

The report also suggests that Trump may sign an executive order on his first day in office to address the issue of "debanking" and repeal the controversial cryptocurrency accounting policy, which could provide a positive catalyst for the market.