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The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 – suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
