On January 18, the possibility of creating a national reserve Bitcoin -fund in the US reached its maximum in 2025.
On Saturday, cryptocurrency betting platform Kalshi put the odds on Donald Trump creating a state Bitcoin - fund until January 1, 2026, increased up to 70%. Since January 10, when this indicator reached a bottom at 40%, the probability of establishing a cryptocurrency fund has increased by 75%.
However, after reaching the peak, the chance of establishing a BTC reserve fund began to melt away before our eyes and now stands at 58%. In this regard, a successful bet on a positive outcome will bring 40% profit, and if the bet on the fund not being created wins, the profit amount will reach 108%.
Change in the probability that the United States will create a national reserve fund Bitcoin -fund
Nick Baker, owner of computer hardware company 7Watts, believes that Bitcoin's surge over the weekend was fueled by rumors that Trump would order a national Bitcoin -fund. Accordingly, if Donald does not issue such a decree after the inauguration, the BTC rate will be at risk of collapse.
Betting platform clients polymarket highly doubt that Trump will establish a cryptocurrency fund within a week of taking office, and rate the probability of this outcome is only 7%. In this regard, it can be assumed that the US President will not order the establishment of a BTC fund, because of this, clouds will gather over Bitcoin, and its price will fall below $100,000 again.
