Will Trump Follow Through on His Bitcoin Reserve Promise?

Donald Trump's return to the White House has reignited discussions about his past commitments to cryptocurrency policy.

During his campaign, Trump made headlines by attending a Bitcoin conference, delivering a speech that many considered historic, and vowing to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States. Now that he has taken office, speculation is growing over whether he will follow through on these promises and what impact they could have on the crypto market.

In his first days as president, Trump signed an executive order addressing cryptocurrencies and announced the formation of a task force dedicated to digital assets. The official White House statement revealed that one of the group’s key objectives would be to explore the concept of a “digital asset stockpile.” This wording has raised concerns among crypto enthusiasts, as it suggests a focus on safeguarding existing assets rather than actively purchasing Bitcoin for a national reserve.

Despite this, optimism remains within the market. On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, traders are speculating on the likelihood of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin reserve under Trump’s administration in 2025. At present, the odds stand at an even 50%, though they had surged to 65% around the time of Trump’s inauguration before declining following the White House’s official statement.

According to Polymarket’s criteria, the market will resolve in favor of a Bitcoin reserve only if the U.S. government officially holds Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1 and December 31, 2025. However, any Bitcoin acquired through government seizures will not count toward this designation. With the administration’s stance on crypto still evolving, investors and analysts remain watchful for any policy shifts that could shape the future of Bitcoin’s role in U.S. financial strategy.