Crypto narratives as we await next market move

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

Bitcoin’s price is roughly flat week over week as investors eye the next potential crypto market mover.

As Wintermute OTC trader Jake O. put it: “After two consecutive weekends of heightened volatility, the past few sessions have been noticeably slow, with spot ranges tightening.” 

“This slowdown coincides with a lack of fresh crypto-specific narratives, as traders reassess positioning after last week’s liquidation event,” he added.

You want narratives?

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz shared some views — albeit higher-level and less focused on day-to-day prices — for listeners of his panel at the Ondo Summit last week. You might recall I shared the regulation/legislation takeaways from that event.

Novogratz’s first prediction came when he introduced his company, which hopes to go public.

“We’ve been waiting 4.5 years, there’s a new SEC and so I think you’re going to see a whole host of companies — come May or June — listing on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq.”

He then shared scenes from the VP JD Vance’s ball last month (separate from the Crypto Ball Casey attended ). Peter Thiel and Mark Zuckerberg were there, he said, along with what Novogratz estimated to be 20 crypto CEOs.

This big representation felt bullish, he noted. Even if, in Novogratz’s words, “the Trump coin didn’t help that spirit.”  

“I think [bitcoin will] be on the government’s balance sheet in six months,” he said, noting BTC has “carved out a lane” as a store of value. 

On that note, the Galaxy CEO casually claimed to have had lunch with the head of one of the largest sovereign wealth funds two weeks after the election. You know, as really rich executives do.

Essentially if the US is to buy bitcoin (even at the state-leve l, which we’ll discuss later), many of these funds want in too.

“He was cutting his first $500 million check to dip his toe in,” Novogratz said.

Also on that panel was Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead, who chimed in to address those talking of a crypto bubble. 

“How can you have a bubble that nobody owns?” he said. “The median holding of an institutional investor in blockchain is zero.”

Just imagine the impact of a tiny fraction of the $500 trillion of global assets migrating to crypto , Morehead posed. Given his recent convos with institutions that have changed their tune, he expects that to occur this year. 

After bitcoin’s ascent to $109,000, it has obviously retreated — hovering around $97,650 at 2:15 pm ET Monday. Could it move lower to, say, $80,000?

Sure, Novogratz said. 

“That doesn’t invalidate this space at all,” he added. “Quite frankly that’s the buying opportunity.”

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter .

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter .

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.