Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange Bitmex, has shared his outlook on bitcoin’s price trajectory and trading strategy. His analysis comes as BTC recently pulled back from its highs, testing key support levels amid broader market volatility.
He predicted bitcoin could reach a low of $70,000 and emphasized the importance of patience, stating on social media platform X on March 10: “The plan: Be fucking patient.” The former Bitmex executive added:
BTC likely bottoms around $70K. 36% correction from $110K ATH, v normal for a bull market.
Hayes suggested that for a major rally to take place, traditional financial markets—particularly the SP 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (NDX)—would need to experience sharp declines, leading to financial institutions collapsing. This, he argued, would push central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), to introduce monetary easing policies.
He advised investors on managing market volatility, emphasizing the importance of strategic timing. He urged them to wait for the right moment before making significant investments, stating: “Then you load up the truck.” He opined:
Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse, wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potential unrealised losses.
Additionally, he warned of potential turbulence in the short term, noting that bitcoin could retest $78,000, with a drop to $75,000 if it fails to hold that level. He pointed out that a large number of options contracts are concentrated between $70,000 and $75,000, which could lead to heightened volatility.
After discussing price action, Hayes compared bitcoin to traditional stocks, arguing that the two markets function under vastly different conditions. He stated:
BTC is a true free market, stonks are not. Therefore in a fiat liquidity crisis, BTC leads stocks on down and upside.
Hayes predicted in November last year that bitcoin could reach $1 million, citing Trump’s credit expansion policies as a driver of inflation that may push investors toward hard assets like BTC.
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