Analyst: Ethereum MVRV Diverged Since 2022, Key Turning Point Was Shift to PoS

On-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis of ETH based on traffic and value ratios. The traffic share of ETH on trading platforms has fallen below 35% since late December 2022. This figure had exceeded 50% in September 2021, indicating that ETH once rivaled BTC in terms of platform inflow/outflow share. The significant decline in this share reflects reduced attention on ETH by capital. Since December 2022, a clear divergence has been seen in the MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) of Bitcoin (blue line) and Ethereum (yellow line). For the previous seven years, this indicator alternated in dominance between ETH and BTC. However, now the blue line remains below the yellow line, indicating that since December 2022 until today, the unrealized profit of ETH holders has consistently been lower than that of BTC. Both exchange data and on-chain data suggest that the turning point for Ethereum's trend was December 2022. Coincidentally, on September 15, 2022, the Ethereum mainnet merged with the Beacon Chain, ending PoW mining and transitioning to a PoS consensus mechanism, after which everything changed. As sentiment weakened, capital inflow for BTC and ETH, the two main assets, has significantly decreased since last December. Even so, BTC still managed a positive inflow of $5.4 billion over a 30-day period; meanwhile, ETH has seen a net capital outflow since February 15, with $6.2 billion outflow in the last 30 days as of yesterday. Capital attitude is a crucial factor in determining price and trends, and ETH's rebound in trend will require renewed capital attention.