Bitcoin balance sheet adoption could hit 20% of BTC supply by 2026

Bitwise and UTXO Management project that 20% of all Bitcoin (BTC) could migrate to institutional balance sheets by end-2026, according to a new report published by Bitwise and UTXO Management on May 23.

The study, called “Exploring the Game Theory of Hyperbitcoinization,” models five demand channels for Bitcoin.

Nation-states top the list with a $161.7 billion allocation built on a 5% swap of existing gold reserves into Bitcoin, equal to 1.62 million BTC, or 7.7% of the 21 million-coin cap. 

Wealth-management platforms that oversee roughly $60 trillion could direct $120 billion into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds if clients opt for a 0.2% position.

Public companies, which already hold more than 600,000 BTC collectively, could add another 1.18 million coins ($117.8 billion) as fair-value accounting rules and peer competition reinforce treasury adoption.

Meanwhile, 13 US state reserve bills translate to a modeled $19.6 billion purchase, while sovereign-wealth funds account for a $7.8 billion base case. The combined flows total $427 billion, about 4.27 million BTC, or 20% of the supply.

Path to 20% of Bitcoin supply by 2026

Bitwise and UTXO cited the first-year performance of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which attracted $36.2 billion of net inflows and surpassed gold-ETF assets in one-twentieth the time SPDR Gold Shares required after launch. 

The report argued that major wirehouses and private banks will soon open ETF access, transforming dormant interest into orders.

Once holdings accumulate, the report anticipates a pivot toward BTC-denominated yield. It values the nascent Bitcoin finance market at $100 billion if only 5% of a $2 trillion Bitcoin capitalization seeks on-chain lending, basis trades, or bridge-operator fees. 

Firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet leverage these tools to expand reserves without new equity issuance.

Favorable policies in the US

Additionally, policy initiatives add a structural bid. The BITCOIN Act, reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis in March, would direct the Treasury to buy 200,000 BTC annually for five years.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with 198,000 seized coins. 

Parallel state bills cap BTC at up to 10% of rainy-day funds, reinforcing what the authors describe as a game-theory loop. Each cohort that accumulates removes circulating supply, lifts price floors, and pressures lagging peers to act.

Bitwise and UTXO conclude that the interplay among sovereigns, corporations, and wealth platforms could push adoption beyond speculative trade into portfolio mechanics and public finance policy. 

The report frames this progression as a step toward “hyperbitcoinization,” which will be driven by balance-sheet management rather than market sentiment and result in institutions accumulating roughly 20% of the Bitcoin supply by 2026.

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