Bitcoin long-term holders aren’t cashing out despite new ATH and that’s keeping the rally alive

Bitcoin’s May rally has been met with selective profit-taking by long-term holders, but the broader trend shows a slowdown in their selling. Between March 1 and May 27, the 7-day SMA of long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) increased from 2.10 to 2.22, indicating a mild uptick in realized profits. However, the 30-day SMA declined from around 2.51 to 2.17 over the same period, marking a 13.6% drop.

This divergence is important. While the 7-day SMA shows that some long-held coins were sold for profit into Bitcoin’s ATH of $111,700 on May 22, the 30-day average shows waning profit realization among long-term holders overall.

In previous cycles, an upward-sloping 30-day LTH SOPR has signaled increased sell-side pressure. Instead, the declining trend through March, April, and May suggests that older coins remained mostly dormant despite the rally.

BTC gained over 26% since the beginning of March, moving from around $86,000 to an ATH of $111,700 and then down to around $109,000. Moves like this usually trigger heavier profit-taking across all cohorts, yet the SOPR trend shows restraint from long-term holders. This restraint implies a conviction-led hodling strategy and reduced structural selling pressure, both creating support for a continued rally.

As of May 27, the 30-day LTH SOPR remains above 2.0, still showing profitability but well below its March highs. If the price holds above $100,000 and the metric stays flat or trends lower, it would reinforce the view that long-term holders, including a huge portion of institutional investors, are not rushing to exit. That would certainly leave room for a continued price increase with a limited supply inflow coming from long-term holders.

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