Matrixport: Weakening US Macro Data May Trigger Market Turbulence, Bitcoin's Rise Difficult to Sustain

Matrixport's weekly report states that Bitcoin's upward momentum is weakening, and cracks are beginning to appear in the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop. Two key economic indicators have recently fallen to multi-month lows, but most investors' attention remains focused on ETE fund flows. In fact, financing dynamics, stablecoin activity, and forward-looking data all suggest that larger-scale changes may be occurring in the market. As U.S. macroeconomic data begins to soften, we may be entering a period of uncertainty. The strong performance in recent demand is likely driven by the market's anticipation of Trump's tariff policy, accelerating order execution, but this activity now appears to be normalizing. Policymakers may be concerned that tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures, thus remaining cautious about easing policies prematurely. We previously noted that Bitcoin breaking through $84,500 would confirm its bullish trend. Considering the potential market uncertainty in the summer, we recommended traders take moderate profits in last week's report. Despite the recent softening in price trends, our trend model remains bullish. The model will only turn bearish if Bitcoin falls below $96,719, which is still intact but indeed close to being breached. As the trend momentum has significantly weakened, we chose to lock in profits early. With early signs of weakening economic data gradually emerging, we may face over two months of economic turbulence. In such a market environment, Bitcoin is unlikely to continue rising uninterrupted, especially as the Federal Reserve is not yet ready to cut interest rates and inflation expectations remain high.