As anticipation builds across the crypto market over which altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will receive a go-ahead from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has raised the odds for it happening.
According to his latest forecast, the chances for Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) spot ETFs being greenlighted stand at 90%.
Approval Odds
The analyst shared the updated forecasts in a June 10 X post . XRP is not far behind with 85% odds, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 80%. Other tokens, such as Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX), are each sitting at 75%.
The SEC has been actively reviewing proposals for spot Solana ETFs. According to a report from Blockworks, the agency has reportedly asked issuers to submit updated S1 registration forms next week with plans to review and comment on the filings within 30 days.
Sources cited also said it requested that they clarify how they would handle staking and in-kind redemptions. These updates suggest that the SEC is now more open to allowing staking as part of a Solana ETF structure. One source estimated that these changes could speed up the process, possibly putting the investment vehicles on track for approval within the next three to five weeks.
Several major firms are in the race to launch a Solana ETF, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton.
Seyffart mentioned in a note that the financial watchdog may begin reviewing their 19b4 filings sooner than expected, especially those involving staking. He added that issuers have likely been working closely with the SEC and its crypto task force to fine-tune the details.
Expert Says Delays Are Normal
The regulator had formally acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal in February. However, it later delayed its decision in May, citing unresolved issues. More recently, the agency also postponed decisions on proposals from Bitwise and 21Shares. This was due to the need for more time to examine technical, legal, and investor-protection aspects.
Commenting on this trend, the Bloomberg analyst said that such delays are expected in the approval process. He explained that if the SEC were to greenlight any altcoin ETFs early, it would not happen before late June or early July. According to him, a more realistic timeline would be sometime in the fourth quarter of 2025.
While the U.S market waits, other countries are setting the pace. In August 2024, Brazil moved ahead with its first spot Solana ETF offered by QR Asset, with a similar product from Hashdex following shortly after.
