Gemini + Glassnode: Bitcoin Adoption, Volatility, and Market Cap

Bitcoin continues to mature as an asset, with long-term holding trends and institutional participation playing an increasingly important role in market dynamics. The launch of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has reshaped perception, transforming Bitcoin into a sovereign reserve asset and catalyzing renewed institutional confidence.

In our latest collaborative research report with Gemini Institutional, we analyze on-chain data to explore the impact of the SBR on the broader Bitcoin market. The report outlines the key behavioral trends and structural signals that highlight Bitcoin’s transition into a maturing financial asset class.

Key insights from the report:

• Over 30% of Bitcoin is held by centralized entities, with a small group of early adopters controlling a disproportionate share across most categories
• Sovereign treasuries play an outsized role, whether through dormant holdings (e.g., the U.S., China) or active DCA strategies (e.g., El Salvador, Bhutan), with growing impact on market psychology and stability
• Off-chain venues dominate volume, with centralized exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives platforms facilitating the majority of trading, driving a new era of institutional market structure
• Volatility has declined across timeframes, with recent cycles defined by more consistent, sustained rallies that appeal to long-term investors
• Each $1 of capital deployed into bitcoin can increase the total bitcoin market cap by up to $25 in the short term, and ~$1.70 over a full cycle, highlighting the reflexive power of institutional inflows.

Read on for an overview of the key themes explored in the report, or download the full version for deeper insights into the trends shaping digital assets in 2025.

Sovereign Treasuries and Market Impact

Countries such as El Salvador, Bhutan, and the United States have publicly acknowledged or disclosed holdings of Bitcoin. While modest in scale relative to total supply, these coins are typically held in inactive wallets and show no signs of spending behavior, aligning with patterns seen among long-term holders. Their passive custody reduces liquid supply, subtly reinforces investor confidence, and adds a symbolic layer to Bitcoin’s evolving macro narrative.

Institutional Custody Dominates the Bitcoin Landscape

Over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by just 216 centralized entities, including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries—according to Glassnode’s latest analysis. These entities play an increasingly influential role in shaping supply dynamics, with the report offering a granular breakdown by category and holdings size.

While ETFs represent the most prominent segment of this group by volume, exchanges continue to function as liquidity hubs, and corporates contribute to longer-term supply consolidation. This concentration highlights a growing institutional presence in Bitcoin markets, reflecting both adoption momentum and the structural centralization emerging within custody and market access layers.

Off-chain Markets Drive the Majority of Bitcoin Volume

More than 75% of Bitcoin trading volume now occurs through off-chain venues such as centralized exchanges (CEXs) and ETFs, marking a significant structural shift in how liquidity is accessed and price discovery is established.

This transition away from on-chain settlement toward custodial and institutional platforms reflects the maturation of Bitcoin’s market infrastructure, where execution, access, and regulation are increasingly shaped by traditional financial frameworks. As highlighted in the report, this off-chain dominance has implications not only for market efficiency and transparency but also for the ways in which capital allocates and interacts with the Bitcoin network itself.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

The structural shifts unfolding across the Bitcoin market reflect a maturing asset class shaped increasingly by long-term holders, institutional custodians, and evolving market infrastructure.

Glassnode’s on-chain analytics offer a clear lens into these dynamics, revealing how behavioral signals and settlement trends are driving a new phase of adoption. As Bitcoin continues to integrate into broader financial systems, understanding these underlying shifts is essential for navigating what comes next.

Get the Full Analysis

The latest Gemini x Glassnode Report provides a data-driven breakdown of these critical shifts, helping investors form a complete market view.

Download the report .

Glassnode remains committed to providing the highest quality data and analysis to support institutional investors in the world of digital assets. Contact us for bespoke reports, data services, and more. For more reports on the current trends in the crypto markets, please visit Glassnode Insights .