New on-chain data has revealed a widening profit gap across major crypto assets, fueling speculation on which coins are overheated and which are primed for a breakout.
According to market intelligence platform Santiment, 94.5% of Bitcoin (BTC) holders are sitting on unrealized gains, with Ethereum (ETH) trailing slightly at 88.7%. On the flip side, less than half of Cardano (ADA) holders are in the green, highlighting deep-seated bearish sentiment and potential undervaluation.
Behind the Divide
Santiment’s analysis shows a classic market tension, where coins with the most holders in profit, like BTC, tend to attract investor confidence but also risk triggering sell-offs. This is especially relevant now, given Bitcoin’s recent climb past $106,000. In the last 24 hours, the king cryptocurrency gained a formidable 2%, and nearly 3.4% over the week, reinforcing its stronghold amid easing geopolitical tensions.
Yesterday, on-chain expert Axel Adler Jr. confirmed that about 720,000 BTC were sold over the last two months. Yet, Bitcoin absorbed the pressure rather than crashing, thanks to strong demand from new buyers.
The Realized Cap for 0–1 month holders spiked by $66 billion since April, marking one of the most significant profit-taking waves in recent memory. However, Adler’s UTXO model now shows a cooldown in selling, suggesting reduced downside risk in the short term.
Meanwhile, ADA is spiraling in the opposite direction. Currently trading around $0.60 after a 23.6% slide in the last 30 days, only 46.5% of its holders are in profit, potentially making it attractive for long-term contrarians.
While analysts such as Marcus Corvinus see bullish patterns and oversold RSI conditions, significant hurdles remain. Whale sell-offs, including a recent 270 million ADA dump, and persistent negative momentum are challenging such narratives.
ETH, DOGE, and XRP
Even as Bitcoin basks in broad profitability, major altcoins are painting a fragmented picture. ETH, with 88.7% of holders profitable, faces near-term leverage risks. Earlier in the week, Matrixport warned that crowded futures positioning could threaten further downside, contributing to its 4.2% weekly drop to around $2,430.
Looking at XRP, with 65.1% of holders above water, and Dogecoin (DOGE), which has 64.7% of investors sitting pretty, there are still undertones of technical fragility. At the time of this writing, XRP was trading at $2.18, down 7.4% in the last month, while DOGE has been consolidating nervously between $0.16 and $0.18. Market watcher Ali Martinez recently warned that a break either way could trigger a 60% swing.
All things considered, Santiment’s data suggests that coins like Chainlink (LINK), with just under 60% of its owners showing a return, and ADA may have untapped upside if broader sentiment lifts. Key triggers include Bitcoin’s ability to hold $100,000 support amid profit-taking, Ethereum’s leverage unwind, and whether the altcoins can convert technical oversold signals into sustained demand.
