Morgan Stanley Eyes March 2026 For Fed Easing

In an economic climate marked by geopolitical tensions and wait-and-see attitudes toward the Fed’s decisions, Morgan Stanley is disrupting the consensus. The investment bank anticipates seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, with a terminal rate between 2.5 % and 2.75 %. This sharp projection, published on June 25, contrasts with the prevailing caution and reignites debates about the U.S. monetary calendar.

The Morgan Stanley scenario : a radical monetary trajectory

While the Fed maintains its rates and Powell remains inflexible , Morgan Stanley forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, to bring the terminal rate between 2.5 % and 2.75 %. This message projects a significant monetary shift for the United States.

If confirmed, this trajectory would mean a massive easing of U.S. monetary policy, breaking with the tightening cycle initiated since 2022. To date, the Federal Reserve has not officially commented on this projection.

This forecast, issued by one of the largest American investment banks, likely relies on a series of macroeconomic signals. It is based on several key technical and strategic points :

• A precise timeline : the beginning of rate cuts would be considered as early as March 2026, implying that the Fed would keep rates elevated at least until the end of that year ;
• The number of cuts : seven rate reductions in one year would represent a particularly aggressive easing cycle, equating to nearly 175 basis points of cuts ;
• The estimated terminal rate between 2.5 % and 2.75 % would be in the so-called “neutral” zone, neither stimulative nor restrictive for the economy ;
• This projection assumes a significant economic slowdown or a structural decline in inflation, forcing the Fed to ease its monetary policy ;
• Although the announcement does not come directly from the Fed itself, it quickly drew reactions from financial observers, notably in bond markets and future rate expectations.

By communicating early and precisely, Morgan Stanley thus sends a strong signal to the markets, which will now have to integrate this scenario into their economic models and asset allocation strategies.

Potential consequences for cryptos : a window of opportunity ?

The timing of this announcement is no coincidence for the crypto ecosystem, which is currently evolving in a context of relative stagnation after a promising start to the year. The prospect of monetary easing starting in March 2026, with seven successive cuts, could signal a major bullish move for risk markets.

Even if the information does not explicitly mention digital assets, the crypto community sees a potential opportunity.

Historically, periods of rate cuts have often coincided with crypto rebounds, capital costs decreasing, and investors turning to higher-risk, high-potential assets.

In such a scenario, increased liquidity could benefit blockchain projects, DeFi platforms, as well as retail investors seeking alternative yields. However, it should be noted that this projection is still long-term, nearly nine months away, and is based on economic assumptions that may evolve.

If this scenario were to materialize, it would open the door to a revaluation of cryptos, especially if there is a positive correlation between rate cuts and the performance of bitcoin and Ether. However, the geopolitical context, particularly tensions in the Middle East , developments in the U.S. labor market, or a resurgence of inflation could challenge this roadmap.