After the release of non-agricultural data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September dropped to about 80%
according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 24%, with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 71%, and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut probability of 5%. Before the non-farm payroll release, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 76.7%, with a 23.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 73.3%, and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut probability of 21.8%.
