- Toncoin has broken below a long-term symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential trend shift.
- Technical targets point toward $1.90 based on Fibonacci extensions.
- RSI and MACD reflect weak momentum, with resistance holding firm at $3.00.
Toncoin (TON) has fallen out of a prolonged symmetrical triangle pattern, now trading near $2.80. The asset’s recent breakdown from the consolidation range raises attention around the projected Fibonacci extension levels. The 4-hour chart highlights a structural shift, with lower highs and a failed attempt to reclaim the $3.20 resistance. Based on technical projections, the $1.90 level emerges as a critical downside target in the near term.
Breakdown Below Triangle Support Accelerates Bearish Momentum
On the 4-hour chart, TON failed to maintain its position inside a long-term symmetrical triangle, breaking below its support trendline. The structure had confined price movements since late February, with notable respect for both trend boundaries. Nevertheless, the recent selling action pushed below the lower trendline around the $3.00 mark breaking the previous congestion area.
This breakdown left the price below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at 2.91 adding to the risk of a downside. The measured move from the widest part of the triangle places the potential price magnet near the $1.90 region. This is relatively in line with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $2.06 and 1.414 at around $1.90 and which form important technical levels on the chart.
Technical Indicators Show Continued Consolidation
In the 1-hour chart, momentum indicators show limited signs of strong recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) remains muted around 49.06, hovering just below neutral territory. The recent low at 38.18 suggests sellers briefly dominated before a slight intraday bounce. However, there is no clear bullish divergence forming.
Source: Trading View The MACD 12 26 continues to waver, and now it moves with minor oscillations on the histogram: 0.0068 and -0.0123. Its signal line remains below the zero mark, adding to the uncertainty. With weak momentum and no significant bullish follow-through, downside risks remain relevant unless a strong reversal occurs.
Toncoin Holds Range Below $3.00 as Downside Risks Build
Currently, Toncoin is trading at $2.81 , within a stone’s throw of resisting the 3.00 price band, as of the latest head-minute data value. Indecision is suggested by the price held in a narrower range following the breakdown. Although the currency supports may hold temporarily at the current position, selling pressures at around $2.91 are keeping the currency range-bound on the upside.
The asset’s current position places it below key moving averages on multiple timeframes, with the technical bias skewing to the downside. If the $2.55 level gives way, the Fibonacci extensions suggest a price drift toward $2.06, and possibly the $1.90 zone, could become likely based on historical pattern moves.
