Bitcoin ended the second quarter of 2025 with an appreciation of close to 30%, trading at around US$ 109.000 on July 5th with a drop of almost 1%.
The slight correction that occurred mid-week, which took the price to $105.000, coincided with the approval of the new $5 trillion budget bill proposed by current US President Donald Trump. BTC's quick recovery after the drop reinforced the feeling of strength in the market.
Despite the recent rally, analysts remain divided on the short-term trend. While Standard Chartered projects a move higher to $200.000 this year, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns of a possible pullback to the $90.000 range before any stronger recovery.
The new budget legislation — dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” — makes the 2017 individual tax cuts permanent, raises the U.S. debt ceiling and eliminates stimulus programs like Medicaid expansion and green energy subsidies. The measure, signed into law on July 4, has sparked a backlash among investors and business leaders.
In the cryptocurrency sector, the initial impact of the law was a slight weakening, but the history of fiscal stimulus points to a possible positive effect in the medium and long term. Analysts point out that similar packages, such as those approved in 2020, significantly boosted crypto prices.
Among the developments, there was frustration in the market with the withdrawal of an amendment that provided tax exemption for mining and staking activities. Still, discussions about the formation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US are advancing, which could attract additional institutional attention.
In addition, the political repercussions also gained strength. Elon Musk publicly criticized the cuts in clean energy and warned about the increase in federal debt. In response, Trump suggested deporting the executive, intensifying the clash between the two influential figures.